April 17, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Lady Delaware 1.80 SCRATCH
9 9 Tote Board 12.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Dotdotdash 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Women Not Easy 6.00 SCRATCH
2A 1 Micromillion 2.50 1.4 3-1
3 2 Lady Fatima 10.00 1.8 3-1
6A 5 Mo Mystery 2.50 2.3 4-1
5 4 No Sugar No Cream 15.00 2.3 4-1
8 6 Tesorina 4.00 2.5 5-1
4 3 Lil Morning Star 50.00 2.6 5-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Connolly’s Beads 2.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Milvado 3.50 1.9 4-1
7 7 Preternatural 1.40 2.3 4-1
2 2 High Command 10.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Blue Skies Forever 8.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Wisecrack 15.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Quintarelli 12.00 3 6-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Dark Money 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Americano 6.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Traffic Stop 4.00 2 4-1
6A 5 False Info 1.20 2.1 4-1
3 3 Honorable Hero 2.50 2.3 4-1
8A 7 Go Poke the Bear 1.20 2.4 5-1
5 4 Eddy Dirt 8.00 3 6-1
7 6 Don Polo 10.00 3.1 6-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Tabor Fleet 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 It’s a Shaw Thing 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Bizness Beauty 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Queen Kahen 4.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Double Medal 2.50 1.1 2-1
7 4 Cashmere Woods 3.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Finance Reform 5.00 2.2 4-1
11 7 Avocado 3.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Candy for All 10.00 2.6 5-1
9 5 Appreciate 8.00 3 6-1
10 6 Mrs Stinkman 12.00 3.5 7-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Mo Soul 3.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Malibu Action 3.50 1.1 2-1
3 2 Orpheus (ARG) 8.00 1.8 3-1
6 5 Happy Farm 2.00 1.9 3-1
4 3 O Shea Can U See 12.00 2.5 5-1
7 6 Missle Bomb 3.50 2.6 5-1
5 4 Will Did It 15.00 3 6-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Sams Last Ghasp 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Cross Multiply 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Surface Strike 2.00 1.3 3-1
5 5 Curlin Creek 1.80 1.7 3-1
2 2 Hoard 8.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Curlin’s New Moon 6.00 2.2 4-1
9 7 Inalienable Rights 8.00 2.8 5-1
3A 3 Flat Out Jayvien 10.00 2.9 5-1
7A 6 Buss the Bell 10.00 3.7 7-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8A 8 Dowse’s Beach 1.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Shiraz 4.50 1.3 2-1
4A 4 We Should Talk 1.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Psychic Energy 10.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Catch a Cab 6.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Outrageous Bet 8.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Royal Asset 5.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 The Crocheron Kid 12.00 3.7 7-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Big Birthday 2.50 1.5 3-1
4 4 Pauseforthecause 2.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Honor Way 3.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Playinwiththeboys 10.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Posse Needed 10.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Abounding Joy 3.50 2.8 5-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3A 3 Too Many Tales 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Margie Cat 30.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Intersect 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Peggy Sue 12.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Sander’s Empire 8.00 2.4 5-1
5 4 Mom’s Kisses 3.50 2.4 5-1
7 6 Taniell’s Candy 5.00 2.5 5-1
4 3 Annette’s Humor 6.00 2.8 5-1
12 10 Smart Throb 4.00 2.9 5-1
8 7 Here Comes Helen 10.00 3.5 7-1
6 5 Minit Maus 20.00 3.8 7-1
9A 8 Youth Gone Wild 12.00 4.2 8-1
11 9 Barbara P 15.00 5.1 10-1
14 11 Seattle Frost 20.00 5.6 11-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.