April 17, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Lady Delaware | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Tote Board | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Dotdotdash | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Women Not Easy | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2A | 1 | Micromillion | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Lady Fatima | 10.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6A | 5 | Mo Mystery | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | No Sugar No Cream | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Tesorina | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lil Morning Star | 50.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Connolly’s Beads | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Milvado | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Preternatural | 1.40 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | High Command | 10.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blue Skies Forever | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wisecrack | 15.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Quintarelli | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dark Money | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Americano | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Traffic Stop | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6A | 5 | False Info | 1.20 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Honorable Hero | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8A | 7 | Go Poke the Bear | 1.20 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Eddy Dirt | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Don Polo | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Tabor Fleet | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | It’s a Shaw Thing | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Bizness Beauty | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Queen Kahen | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Double Medal | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Cashmere Woods | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Finance Reform | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Avocado | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Candy for All | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Appreciate | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Mrs Stinkman | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mo Soul | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Malibu Action | 3.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Orpheus (ARG) | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Happy Farm | 2.00 | 1.9 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | O Shea Can U See | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Missle Bomb | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Will Did It | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Sams Last Ghasp | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Cross Multiply | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Surface Strike | 2.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Curlin Creek | 1.80 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hoard | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Curlin’s New Moon | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Inalienable Rights | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Flat Out Jayvien | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7A | 6 | Buss the Bell | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8A | 8 | Dowse’s Beach | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Shiraz | 4.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | We Should Talk | 1.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Psychic Energy | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Catch a Cab | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Outrageous Bet | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Royal Asset | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | The Crocheron Kid | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Big Birthday | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pauseforthecause | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Honor Way | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Playinwiththeboys | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Posse Needed | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Abounding Joy | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3A | 3 | Too Many Tales | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Margie Cat | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Intersect | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Peggy Sue | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sander’s Empire | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mom’s Kisses | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Taniell’s Candy | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Annette’s Humor | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Smart Throb | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Here Comes Helen | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Minit Maus | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9A | 8 | Youth Gone Wild | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Barbara P | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Seattle Frost | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.