April 17, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Sworn Silence 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Trusty Roll 5.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Honey Bunny 0.80 1.9 3-1
1 1 Offlee Silkie 8.00 2 4-1
2 2 Shared Silence 20.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Courtmewithcarats 15.00 2.4 5-1
7 6 Tenpins Tempo 5.00 2.8 5-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Picasso Moon 3.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Loran Holiday (ARG) 2.50 1.6 3-1
2 2 Katie the Cutie 5.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Native Wonder 15.00 3 6-1
7 7 Eyerish Inspired 5.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Nymue’s Treasure 5.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Secret Trick 8.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 She’s Alotta Woman 10.00 3.7 7-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Letsstaypositive 3.50 SCRATCH
1 3 Miss Understanding 15.00 SCRATCH
6 7 Creative Credit 10.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Chili Petin 2.00 1.3 2-1
8 6 Biddy Duke 5.00 2.2 4-1
1A 4 Nite Brite 15.00 2.3 4-1
7 5 Annabelle’s Babe 5.00 2.3 4-1
3 2 Kitty’s Promise 12.00 2.4 5-1
5 3 Baytown Babe 12.00 2.9 6-1
10 8 My Good Girl 12.00 3.6 7-1
9 7 Twisted Emotions 20.00 4.2 8-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 La Femme Royale 3.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Rockin Ready 1.80 1.7 3-1
1 1 Coexistence 5.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Focused 8.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Golden Orb 2.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Fancy Fox 12.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Tap Tap Taparoo 3.00 3 6-1
4 4 Tiz Taken Back 15.00 3.4 6-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 7 Twila Mae 15.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Baytown Vi Vi 30.00 SCRATCH
5 4 La Rosa Drive 8.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Nayibeth 1.40 1.1 2-1
7 4 Owlette 4.00 2 4-1
1A 8 My Doughnut 15.00 2.2 4-1
4 3 Diamonds Are A 8.00 2.6 5-1
9 6 Allaboutaprincess 10.00 3.2 6-1
10 7 Polly Tiz 8.00 3.4 6-1
3 2 Kertara 20.00 3.4 6-1
8 5 Alexa G 20.00 3.7 7-1
11 9 A Wicked Wildcat 30.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Lord Wimborne (IRE) 5.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Play the Kid 5.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Cannonstone 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Nepal Up 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Rochambeau 4.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Trade Deadline 3.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Kid Lemuel 10.00 2.4 4-1
7 7 Big Torch Key 4.00 3 6-1
5 5 Bourbon Calling 4.50 3.1 6-1
6 6 Higher Authority 15.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Avigale (IRE) 12.00 3.4 7-1
3 3 Atthepearlygates 30.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Bakers Bay 12.00 4.7 9-1
11 11 Tantalizing 20.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Spiritus Invictus 15.00 5.2 10-1
12 12 Chief of Joy 20.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Stone Hands 2.50 1.5 3-1
1 1 Iconic 3.50 1.6 3-1
2 2 McCormick 3.50 2.3 4-1
4 4 Go Navy Go 5.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Tiznoble 3.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Dragon Bay 12.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Action Everyday 12.00 3.7 7-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Camp Creek 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Krewe Chief 5.00 2 4-1
8 7 Neepawa 3.00 2 4-1
4 4 Zumurudee 6.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Strike the Flag 12.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Local Hero 15.00 3 6-1
7 6 Take That for Data 8.00 3.4 6-1
12 11 Sarrasin (GB) 3.50 4 8-1
10 9 Royal Artillery 10.00 4.3 8-1
9 8 Ekhtibaar 30.00 4.5 9-1
11 10 Gettysburg 15.00 4.5 9-1
6 5 Mottaret 50.00 4.7 9-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.