Sports from the Basement

Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, April 18, 2019

April 18, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Examiner 2.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Wild About Candy 5.00 1.7 3-1
7 6 Talent Scout 3.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Raphael 6.00 2.2 4-1
6 5 Freakin Joe 4.50 2.3 4-1
5 4 Laser Loop 5.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Trapper Peak 10.00 2.9 5-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5A 5 Alcools 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Snell Yeah 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Snake River Red 2.50 SCRATCH
1.6 3-1
4 4 Rag Tag 2.00 1.7 3-1
7 5 Joker On Jack 2.50 1.8 3-1
2A 2 Salty Snapper 20.00 2 4-1
1 1 Two Dot 5.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Kolten’s Court 20.00 2.7 5-1
8 6 Competitive Queen 12.00 3 6-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Finess Bere (FR) 2.50 1.4 3-1
2 2 Twin Channel 3.00 1.6 3-1
1.6 3-1
1 1 Room to Finish 5.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Nantucket Red 3.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Vevina 3.50 2.9 5-1
5 5 Kitten’s Slew 15.00 3.2 6-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 View Magic 3.00 0.9 2-1
4 4 Noble Companion 3.50 1.9 4-1
8 8 Hey Prez 4.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Smell of Roses 6.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Storm Rider 15.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Brilliant Decision 20.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Watch Out Justin 8.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Sarcillo 6.00 4 7-1
6 6 Harlan’s Vador (ARG) 20.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Hart Hall 12.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 1 Unapologetic Me 4.50 1.6 3-1
1.7 3-1
3 3 Ebullient 3.00 2 4-1
5 5 Gamblin Train 4.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Desert Ride 4.00 2.4 5-1
2A 2 Diva Day 4.50 2.5 5-1
7 7 Be Nimble 4.50 3.5 7-1
8 8 Gallovie (GB) 8.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Moravia (GB) 5.00 3.7 7-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Paper Clip 3.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Brittas Bay 2.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Holdonaminit 10.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Miss Lady Locker 8.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Urban Insight 3.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Bourbon Girl 10.00 2.9 5-1
8 7 Warrior’s Path 8.00 3.6 7-1
7 6 Brassy and Sassy 12.00 3.7 7-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 So Aristocratic 3.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Fun Paddy 3.00 1.1 2-1
5 5 British Invader (GB) 2.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Double Oaked 10.00 2.4 5-1
8 7 Righteous Ruby 5.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Pepper Them Girl 20.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Valkyrie 6.00 3 6-1
6 6 Mushaboom 20.00 3.5 7-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 G Nineteen 50.00 SCRATCH
1A 1 I’m Corfu 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Cape Rosso 10.00 SCRATCH
4 3 Fooch 4.00 1.4 3-1
2 1 Iona Mobe 5.00 1.5 3-1
5 4 Get Western 4.00 2.5 5-1
3 2 Master Guns 6.00 2.8 5-1
8 6 Getyourmindright 8.00 3.1 6-1
9 7 Milk Chocolate 8.00 3.9 7-1
7 5 Sekondi 15.00 4 7-1
13 10 Leinster 8.00 4.3 8-1
12 9 King of Candy 8.00 4.5 8-1
14A 11 Rapa Iti 20.00 4.6 9-1
10 8 Hugh B. 30.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Twisted Anxiety 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Solo Drink 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Archie’s Song 30.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Hermano 4.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Tune In 3.00 1.4 3-1
5 4 Wild Road 3.50 1.7 3-1
7 5 Ogre’s Cat 6.00 2.4 4-1
1 1 Southern Humor 15.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Afleet Jett 10.00 2.5 5-1
8 6 Joker D Lish 8.00 2.7 5-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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