April 27, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Data Star | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Matt’s Honey | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ladyofdragonstone | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Street Rally | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Orleans | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gio’s Cookie Star | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Rich Daddy | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Conqueror | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Stormy Pacific | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | California Swing | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mono | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mineyerownmalone | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Country Lovin | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Curlin’s Prize | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Moonfield | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Weightlessness | 12.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Blank Canvas | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Czraina Maria | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Don’t Dally | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Five Star Factor | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Faith Healer | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Enzio | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Lady Lucy | 2.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Mistress At Sea | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Thea Bee | 10.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Genuwine | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | One for Richie | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Yabba Dabba Dude | 5.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Golden Tiger | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Judge Stanton | 3.50 | 1.9 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Clipboard Money | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Grit and Glory | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Copper Fiddle | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Trashtalkinyankee | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Atmos | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Galton | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Keep Quiet (FR) | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Zanesville | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Kearny County | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Cowboy Rhythm | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Bond Street (IRE) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Another | 3.00 | 0.9 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Space Mountain | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Murad Khan (FR) | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Commandeering | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dontblamerocket | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Manson (GB) | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Frankincense | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Firey Speech | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Front Door | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Gentle Warrior | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Makeamericagreat | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Historian | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Proschema | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pow | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Who’syourfavorite | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – William Walker S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Abyssinian | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Bulletin | 0.80 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hartel | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Uncapped | 20.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jo Jo Air | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Legends of War | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sovereign Impact | 30.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Neverland Rock (GB) | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10A | 10 | Charge the Line | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11B | 11 | Griff | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Torazo | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Unbridled Outlaw | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7B | 7 | Sightforsoreeyes | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Icatiro | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Twin Farms | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mr Ashley | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sir Navigator | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Belle Tapisserie | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | No Funny Biz | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Shakes Creek | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Ghost Story | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Satellite | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | King Valero | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Cheytac | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | He’s No Bull | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Combustible | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | On Patrol | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Apreciado | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zeke | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Jailhouse Kitten | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Shared Value | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Stuart Hall | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Love Your Buttons | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sekondi | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Two Stepping Groom | 30.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.