Sports from the Basement

Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 16, 2019

May 16, 2019 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Alphadora 2.50 1.4 3-1
5 5 Amos 3.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Princess Pinky 5.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Singular Sensation 3.50 2.3 4-1
6 6 Happy Sophia 5.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Champayne 4.50 3 6-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Elegant Rose 1.60 SCRATCH
7 7 Know Point Given 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 La Vida 10.00 2 4-1
5 5 Balon Rose 1.20 2 4-1
9 7 Star of the East 4.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Xanthique 15.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Estill 6.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Passion Flower 12.00 3 6-1
6 6 Athary (IRE) 4.50 3.3 6-1
10 8 Petalite 15.00 3.5 7-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 There He Goes 2.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Purchasing Power 1.40 1.4 3-1
3 3 Change of Venue 8.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Somebody 4.00 2.7 5-1
5A 5 Curlin’s New Moon 6.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Hoard 12.00 3.1 6-1
4A 4 Craigville Beach 6.00 3.3 6-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Mentality 2.00 SCRATCH
7 7 High Jingo 3.00 SCRATCH
12 12 First Appeal 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Wantagh Queen 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Out of Trouble 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Alabama Bound 10.00 SCRATCH
13 7 Miss Hot Stones 2.50 1.6 3-1
9 4 Starlite Mission 5.00 1.7 3-1
4 2 Sunshine Gal 15.00 2.3 4-1
8 3 Carrera Cat 3.00 2.5 5-1
10 5 Our Super Nova 10.00 2.7 5-1
3 1 Saratoga Treasure 8.00 2.7 5-1
11 6 Forgotten Hero 15.00 3.4 6-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Dark N Cloudy 1.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Tale of Mist 12.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Crea’s Bklyn Law 2.50 2 4-1
1 1 Leap to Glory 4.00 2.4 4-1
3 3 Mohican 8.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Flatexcel 10.00 2.8 5-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Tariff Tantrum 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Burning Man 3.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Inclunation 3.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Overlord 15.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Wicked Trick 4.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Social Currency (KOR) 4.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Duncastle 8.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Hampton Point 8.00 2.6 5-1
12 9 Azzedine (FR) 50.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Field Patrol 8.00 2.8 5-1
7 6 Dreammaster 6.00 2.9 6-1
10 8 Elfitz 12.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Mythajacul 20.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Lemonist 2.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Royal Albert Hall (GB) 2.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Mills 10.00 SCRATCH
1A 1 Turco Bravo (CHI) 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Prompt 1.80 SCRATCH
3 2 Noble Thought 4.00 1.4 3-1
7 5 Bird’s Eye View 6.00 1.7 3-1
5 3 The Green Mo’ster 4.50 1.9 4-1
2 1 Devamani (FR) 2.50 2.2 4-1
8A 6 Holiday Bonus 15.00 2.6 5-1
6 4 Sarrasin (GB) 12.00 3.1 6-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Lutsky 1.80 1.1 2-1
2 2 Ro Bear 2.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 The Big Lebanese 6.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Freudnme 3.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Kadens Courage 10.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Bronx Bomber 10.00 3 6-1
1 1 Seed Money 15.00 3.5 7-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Taniell’s Candy 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Fusi 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Saratoga Sass 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Too Many Tales 1.60 SCRATCH
6 6 Mz Seb Pat 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Andretta 1.40 SCRATCH
5 5 Kitty Therapy 5.00 SCRATCH
9 4 Caralicious 20.00 1.5 3-1
10 5 Topline 15.00 1.8 3-1
3 2 Honorable Profit 15.00 1.9 4-1
2 1 Romping Rosie 6.00 2.1 4-1
11 6 Frosty Linz 20.00 2.4 4-1
7 3 Semaya 50.00 3.2 6-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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