May 16, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Don’t Tell Lydia | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ladyofdragonstone | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blank Canvas | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Northern Heart | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Weightlessness | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kinley Karole | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bourbon Girl | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Orleans | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Don’t Dally | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Our Addi Belle | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1A | 6 | Desert Thief | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Curiousncuriouser | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Shape of You | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Northern Connect | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Secret Trick | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Colonial Jill | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Olympic Smoke | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 9 | Budget Cut | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Auspicious Babe | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Sydney Freeman | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | English Dancer | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sassy Little Lila | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Smart Emma | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | American Frolic | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cheeky Cherub | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Stave | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Youngest Daughter | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Pranked | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Perfect Alibi | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Collude | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Polly Tiz | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Spartanka | 10.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wheel Snipe Celly | 20.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Topless | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sweet Willemina | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Captain Anne | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Mindprado | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Midland | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | More Than Stature | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Homeview | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Mississippi Moon | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gambit | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Culper | 15.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Into a Hot Spot | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Admiration | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Wicked Max | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sword | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Big Island | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Direct Approach | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Singapore Flash | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Gray Hope | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Clouded Judgement | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Texas Wedge | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Sir Navigator | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Treetop Flyer | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Concord Fast | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Masked | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Indian Lover | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Madison’s Luna | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Blackout (FR) | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fast Boat | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Kid Perfect | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lawton | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dragon Drew | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Johnny Obvious | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Strong Patriot | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | J D’s Girl | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tap That Cat | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pass It On | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fashionablyawesome | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Destiny’s Darling | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nine Martinis | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | More | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Brittas Bay | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Cloche | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Live It Up | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Runway Starlet | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Shilah Baby | 5.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Yes It’s Ginger | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dixieincandyland | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Paper Clip | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Brie’s Lucky Charm | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Joy to the World | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Garden Affair | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | One Card too Many | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Old and Costly | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.