Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 16, 2019

May 16, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Don’t Tell Lydia 3.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 Ladyofdragonstone 5.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Blank Canvas 5.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Northern Heart 4.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Weightlessness 6.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Kinley Karole 12.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Bourbon Girl 15.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Orleans 5.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Don’t Dally 12.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 5 Our Addi Belle 4.00 1.4 3-1
1A 6 Desert Thief 4.00 1.5 3-1
2 1 Curiousncuriouser 2.50 1.9 4-1
3 2 Shape of You 4.00 2.6 5-1
7 8 Northern Connect 4.50 3.1 6-1
5 4 Secret Trick 5.00 3.3 6-1
4 3 Colonial Jill 8.00 3.7 7-1
6 7 Olympic Smoke 10.00 3.7 7-1
8 9 Budget Cut 15.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Auspicious Babe 2.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Sydney Freeman 3.00 SCRATCH
2 2 English Dancer 2.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Sassy Little Lila 2.00 2 4-1
3 3 Smart Emma 8.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 American Frolic 8.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Cheeky Cherub 6.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Stave 4.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Youngest Daughter 10.00 3.2 6-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Pranked 3.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Perfect Alibi 3.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Collude 6.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Polly Tiz 10.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Spartanka 10.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Wheel Snipe Celly 20.00 2.5 5-1
9 8 Topless 2.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Sweet Willemina 20.00 3.4 6-1
8 7 Captain Anne 20.00 4.2 8-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Mindprado 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Midland 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 More Than Stature 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Homeview 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Mississippi Moon 4.00 1.3 2-1
7 6 Gambit 3.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Culper 15.00 2.7 5-1
10 9 Into a Hot Spot 4.50 3.1 6-1
12 11 Admiration 4.00 3.4 6-1
6 5 Wicked Max 15.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Sword 20.00 3.6 7-1
11 10 Big Island 6.00 3.8 7-1
5 4 Direct Approach 20.00 4.1 8-1
8 7 Singapore Flash 30.00 4.6 9-1
9 8 Gray Hope 20.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Clouded Judgement 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Texas Wedge 5.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Sir Navigator 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Treetop Flyer 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Concord Fast 4.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Masked 4.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Indian Lover 8.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Madison’s Luna 6.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Blackout (FR) 4.50 2.8 5-1
4 4 Fast Boat 5.00 3 6-1
10 10 Kid Perfect 8.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Lawton 12.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Dragon Drew 20.00 4.5 9-1
9 9 Johnny Obvious 10.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Strong Patriot 3.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 J D’s Girl 2.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Tap That Cat 2.50 2.2 4-1
2 2 Pass It On 8.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Fashionablyawesome 10.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Destiny’s Darling 5.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Nine Martinis 8.00 3.3 6-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 More 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Brittas Bay 3.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Cloche 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Live It Up 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Runway Starlet 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Shilah Baby 5.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Yes It’s Ginger 6.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Dixieincandyland 6.00 2.2 4-1
11 8 Paper Clip 4.00 2.6 5-1
8 6 Brie’s Lucky Charm 3.50 2.7 5-1
7 5 Joy to the World 8.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Garden Affair 20.00 3.2 6-1
10 7 One Card too Many 15.00 3.9 7-1
12 9 Old and Costly 30.00 4.8 9-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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