Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, June 13, 2019

June 13, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Vestal 3.00 2.2 4-1
7 5 Our Secret Agent 3.50 2.3 4-1
2 1 Shedaresthedevil 4.00 2.6 5-1
3 2 Contendress 10.00 3.1 6-1
9 7 Collude 4.00 3.2 6-1
4 3 Rathrbluckythngood 8.00 3.3 6-1
10 8 Lil Miss Hot Mess 12.00 4.6 9-1
8 6 Chloe Rene 30.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Princess Marykate 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 My Wynter Echo 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Lord Simba 4.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Hallie’s Hero 6.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Crawford 3.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Begotten 12.00 4.9 9-1
9 8 You’re Killin Me 4.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Soul of Discretion 8.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Granian 15.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Day Dreamer 6.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Call Me Richard 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Sharp Witted 4.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Artemus Bridge 2.50 3.5 7-1
5 5 Freefall 6.00 4 7-1
3 3 Wings Up 8.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Troy Ounce 15.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Knight’s Cross 3.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Johny’s Bobby 5.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Impress Me 12.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Macho Orb 4.00 4.2 8-1
10 9 Classical Magic 10.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Heaven Escape 4.00 4.4 8-1
8 7 Encore Kitten 3.50 4.5 9-1
9 8 Altar of Speed 10.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 St. Louise 6.00 5.2 10-1
6 5 Take Charge Cacky 8.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Going to Temple 12.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Rushingirl 8.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 Classy Justice 30.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Runway Starlet 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 More Moet Pleez 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 April Entry 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Cloche 4.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Quite a Secret 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 7 Lewys Vaporizer 2.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Turner Time 4.50 3 6-1
2 2 Brerry 4.00 3.7 7-1
8 6 Niigon’s Glory 3.50 3.7 7-1
4 4 Greeleys Charm 12.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Fish Trappe Road 30.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Stay Home 4.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Zaevion 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Allidoisdreamofyou 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Graceful Princess 2.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Aife 3.50 2.6 5-1
5 5 Sundaysatthebeach 3.00 3.1 6-1
7 6 Shezappealing 12.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Harmony Victory 10.00 4.9 9-1
8 7 Shacklette 15.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Ready Orb Not 12.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Golden Curl 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Fort Fortitude 4.00 3 6-1
6 6 Sir Navigator 3.50 3.3 6-1
1 1 Latent Revenge 6.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Recount 10.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Indian Lover 8.00 4.6 9-1
10 10 Fast Boat 4.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Madison’s Luna 10.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Best of Greeley 20.00 7 13-1
5 5 Dragon Drew 8.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 Manson (GB) 12.00 9.7 18-1
11 11 Mister Maestro 5.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Mount Calvary 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Just Be Frank 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Crosswalk 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Palmer’s Way 3.50 2.7 5-1
6 5 Solomonic 4.00 3.3 6-1
4 3 All in Stew Oui 4.00 4 8-1
9 9 Campaign Spy 8.00 4.5 9-1
1 8 Stolen Thunder 4.00 5.6 11-1
2 1 Vinestone 20.00 6.7 13-1
5 4 Unveiling 5.00 6.9 13-1
3 2 Jazz Music 12.00 7.1 13-1
7 6 High Beam 12.00 7.2 14-1
12 12 Illume 12.00 7.7 14-1
8 7 Direct Approach 15.00 8.3 16-1
10 10 Oh Bene 20.00 9.9 19-1
1A 13 Goose Drank Wine 4.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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