June 13, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Vestal | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Our Secret Agent | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Shedaresthedevil | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Contendress | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Collude | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Rathrbluckythngood | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Lil Miss Hot Mess | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Chloe Rene | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Princess Marykate | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | My Wynter Echo | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Lord Simba | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hallie’s Hero | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Crawford | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Begotten | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | You’re Killin Me | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Soul of Discretion | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Granian | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Day Dreamer | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Call Me Richard | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sharp Witted | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Artemus Bridge | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Freefall | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wings Up | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Troy Ounce | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Knight’s Cross | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Johny’s Bobby | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Impress Me | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Macho Orb | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Classical Magic | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Heaven Escape | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Encore Kitten | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Altar of Speed | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | St. Louise | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Take Charge Cacky | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Going to Temple | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rushingirl | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Classy Justice | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Runway Starlet | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | More Moet Pleez | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | April Entry | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Cloche | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Quite a Secret | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Lewys Vaporizer | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Turner Time | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Brerry | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Niigon’s Glory | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Greeleys Charm | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fish Trappe Road | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Stay Home | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Zaevion | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Allidoisdreamofyou | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Graceful Princess | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Aife | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sundaysatthebeach | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Shezappealing | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Harmony Victory | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Shacklette | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ready Orb Not | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Golden Curl | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Fort Fortitude | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sir Navigator | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Latent Revenge | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Recount | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Indian Lover | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Fast Boat | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Madison’s Luna | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Best of Greeley | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dragon Drew | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Manson (GB) | 12.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mister Maestro | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Mount Calvary | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Just Be Frank | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Crosswalk | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Palmer’s Way | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Solomonic | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | All in Stew Oui | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Campaign Spy | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 8 | Stolen Thunder | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Vinestone | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Unveiling | 5.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Jazz Music | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | High Beam | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Illume | 12.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Direct Approach | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Oh Bene | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 1A | 13 | Goose Drank Wine | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.