Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, June 16, 2019

June 16, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Seeds of Time 4.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Righteous Ruby 3.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Miss Perfecta 5.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Bronco Sally 3.50 3.9 7-1
6 6 Harbor Lights 3.50 4.2 8-1
1 1 Cassidy Ave 4.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Scars Are Cool 1.80 2.2 4-1
6 6 Dinar 6.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Hitch 2.00 3 6-1
3 3 Panforte Di Siena 6.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Freeze Line 8.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Embellisher 10.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Jacks Fire Balls 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Gentrified 2.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Pat Daddy 2.50 4 7-1
9 9 Buggy Brown 10.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Tres Equis 8.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Futile 10.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Here’s Carlos 10.00 5.6 10-1
7 7 Ceeky 8.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Overcame 12.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Mono 12.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Midnight Fantasy 8.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Shang Shang Shang 2.50 3.1 6-1
9 7 Headland 2.50 3.2 6-1
3 3 Change of Control 3.00 4.3 8-1
6 4 Iva 12.00 4.3 8-1
7 5 Mission From Elle 12.00 5.4 10-1
8 6 Raintree Starlet 15.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Boxwood 3.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Winning Envelope 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Julius 4.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Flat Out Beautiful 3.50 3.2 6-1
8 7 Zapper Van Winkle 4.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Homeland Messa 6.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Gentle Warrior 6.00 5.6 11-1
9 8 Plug and Play 4.50 6.1 12-1
6 5 Tizaghera 20.00 6.9 13-1
5 4 Unbeknownst to Me 12.00 8 15-1
4 4 Macho Madness 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Spackle 3.00 5 9-1
3 3 Singsong Bird 8.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 A. P. Princess 4.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 Quite a Secret 8.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Holly Molly Dolly 6.00 6.1 12-1
8 8 Fire On High 10.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Traci’s Greeley 15.00 7.3 14-1
7 7 Blunt Force 10.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Woody’s Reward 8.00 7.7 15-1
12 12 Natures Bounty 15.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Anima 15.00 8.1 15-1
11 11 Live It Up 50.00 9.6 18-1
13 13 Made to Be 3.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Centerfold Angel 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Jimmy Joe 4.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 British Humor 3.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Cosmic Hallelujah 8.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 Homeview 8.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Rio Bueno 15.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Salt Air 4.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 True to Dixie 10.00 6 11-1
6 6 Hooray for Harvey 8.00 6.1 11-1
3 3 Bear Trappe 12.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Tizpure 15.00 8.4 16-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 4 Kid Lemuel 4.00 2.8 5-1
10 5 True Loyalty 10.00 3 6-1
11 6 Broth 5.00 3.3 6-1
5 2 Elgar 10.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 One Last Strike 10.00 3.7 7-1
6 3 Take Charge d’Oro 30.00 5.7 11-1
12 7 Just Like Richie 30.00 6.6 12-1
2 2 Apreciado 5.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Proud as Punch 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Jailhouse Kitten 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Face of Victory 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Bundibunan 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Royal Medallion 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Chess Chief 3.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Beantown Boys 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3A 2 Carrizo 3.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Gold Credit 5.00 3 6-1
6 5 Lady of Luxury 4.00 3.1 6-1
8 7 Good Creation 6.00 3.8 7-1
5 4 Flash n’ Dance 15.00 4 8-1
7 6 Makealitlemischief 3.50 4.5 9-1
4 3 Veiled Vixen 6.00 4.7 9-1
2A 2 Mgr Treasure 3.00 SCRATCH
9 9 C C My Sis 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 9 Shilah Baby 4.50 2.4 5-1
7 5 Yes It’s Ginger 4.00 2.8 5-1
13 10 Dixieincandyland 2.50 2.9 5-1
1 1 Dreams Are Made 4.50 4.8 9-1
5 3 Blinkers 12.00 5.2 10-1
9 7 Freedom Passage 15.00 5.3 10-1
8 6 Nikki Beach 6.00 5.9 11-1
3 2 Liner 15.00 6.8 13-1
6 4 Rubys Memory 30.00 7.3 14-1
10 8 Headlining 20.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Unsweet Tea 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Drop Dead Gorgeous 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Holiday Time 3.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Sheza Rockstar 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Becky’s Bluegrass 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Chikara 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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