Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Friday, July 12, 2019

July 12, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Legion Storm 4.50 2.7 5-1
8 8 Oso Negro 2.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Ummu Ummu Ummu 20.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Derby Memories 6.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 French Revolution 1.60 6.8 13-1
4 4 Dreammaster 10.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Arguto 15.00 9.9 19-1
7 7 Clonedsimmard 30.00 10.2 19-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 1 Crazy Life 4.50 3.7 7-1
7 2 Danfusi 6.00 4.5 9-1
9 3 Make Motime 20.00 5.4 10-1
10 4 Curlin’s Legacy 20.00 5.9 11-1
11 5 The Happy Giant 15.00 7.6 14-1
13A 6 Overland 8.00 12 23-1
14 7 Daddy Knows 1.00 13.3 25-1
1A 1 Klickitat 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Worth a Shot 4.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Catorat 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Prince of New York 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Jimmy Jazz 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Overlord 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Saltking 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Ferdinanda 3.50 3.6 7-1
4 2 Dream Passage 2.50 3.7 7-1
8 6 Tanya’s Gem 20.00 4 8-1
3 1 Complicit 1.60 4.3 8-1
7 5 Conquest Hardcandy 4.00 5.8 11-1
5A 3 Pauseforthecause 6.00 6.3 12-1
1A 1 Held Accountable 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Viva Forever 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Lord Simba 4.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Soul P Say 3.50 4.8 9-1
9 9 Big Muddy 3.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Dazzling Okie 10.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Orpheus (ARG) 6.00 7 13-1
4 4 Kahramani 5.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Nolinski 15.00 8.5 16-1
2 2 Gorelli 15.00 9.1 17-1
5 5 River of Dreams 12.00 10.1 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Lotta Ott 3.00 3 6-1
7 7 Pure Wow 5.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Mylastfirstkiss 12.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Apurate 3.50 4.1 8-1
5 5 Bird Tycoon 12.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Good Shabbos 2.50 4.4 8-1
6 6 Vast 6.00 7.7 15-1
3 3 Drop a Hint 15.00 7.9 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Harv Won’t Tap 8.00 2.1 4-1
13A 7 Curlin Road 1.60 2.7 5-1
1 1 Heavy Roller 10.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Super Dude 4.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Holiday Bonus 15.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 American Lincoln 8.00 7.8 15-1
7A 6 Felix in Fabula 1.60 12.3 23-1
6 6 Keep Quiet (FR) 3.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Dubby Dubbie 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Dontblamerocket 6.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Our Way 5.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Hay Dakota 4.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Applicator 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 4 Filly Dilly 4.00 4 8-1
15 7 Saloon Girl 2.50 4.5 8-1
6 3 Noble Jewel 6.00 5.4 10-1
16 8 Trouble for Skylar 5.00 7.9 15-1
3 1 Citizen Matzo 6.00 8.6 16-1
13 5 Evan’s Nice Now 8.00 9.4 18-1
5 2 Lem Me Have It 15.00 10.4 20-1
14 6 Fancycase 15.00 11.8 22-1
1 1 Short Pour 10.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Hollywood Cat 5.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Tiffanys Freud 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Tzipi 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Something Joyful 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Andarta 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 She’s Dreamin 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Cirque 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Irish Valor 10.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Dreamzapper 3.00 5.1 10-1
6 4 Doups Point 2.50 6.1 11-1
4 3 Broadway Bay 10.00 6.2 12-1
7 5 Fiery Opal 6.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Big Gemmy 4.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Danebury 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Forbidden Apple S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Voodoo Song 3.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Offering Plan 6.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Mr Havercamp 15.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Qurbaan 6.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Hembree 8.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 First Premio 10.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Made You Look 4.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 March to the Arch 6.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Gidu (IRE) 12.00 6.6 12-1
10 10 Doctor Mounty 15.00 6.7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Fight Night 4.50 1.7 3-1
5 3 Abby Normal 8.00 2.7 5-1
15 6 Scarlet’s Command 10.00 3.3 6-1
8 4 Accabonac Harbor 20.00 3.4 6-1
14 5 Summer Fantasy 12.00 3.8 7-1
3 2 Don’t Tell Flora 15.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Freudycatfever 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Smart Throb 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Linda’s Ballet 2.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Winifred J 10.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Heartstrings 12.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Taniell’s Candy 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Traci’s Girl 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Minit Maus 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Prisoner’s Dilemma 3.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Happy Sophia 2.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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