July 20, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Business Cycle | 1.20 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Brush Country | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mandatory Payout | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Blue Gem | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Threatlovesmidnite | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Heyitsnricopalazo | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Somebody | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mission Statement | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Borough Boy | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Value Engineering | 1.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Skywriting | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dillon Rocks | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bad Boy | 3.50 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Heirloom Kitten | 8.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Foti | 10.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Crypto Gold | 12.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 |
| 1 | 1 | On a Spree | 12.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Coaching Club American Oaks
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Guarana | 0.40 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Boxwood | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Champagne Anyone | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Off Topic | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Point of Honor | 3.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Per Capita | 2.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Majority Rules | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Scars Are Cool | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Spice Road | 2.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tough Times | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ranger Up | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fireball Shot | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mamma Dee | 6.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Chestnut Street | 2.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Galadriel’s Light | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Art Buff | 8.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Dynamic Miss | 8.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Stormy D | 3.50 | 10.3 | 19-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ragtime Suzy | 15.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Kinky Sox | 10.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Solitary Gem | 12.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Incredible Miss | 10.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Take Charge Tina | 15.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Kickin Kimberly | 5.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Appreciate | 10.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Infatuation | 30.00 | 14.2 | 27-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Trixie’s Time | 10.00 | 14.7 | 28-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Roses From Ben | 30.00 | 16.6 | 31-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Sequin | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fly So Pretty | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Divided Sky (IRE) | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Sparkling Sky | 4.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Voting Agreement | 5.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mom’s Pass | 4.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Meritaten | 4.50 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sharing | 6.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Magic Motion | 3.50 | 11.7 | 22-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Queen of Shades | 8.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Persian Queen | 6.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Miss My Macho | 20.00 | 12.9 | 24-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Crack of Dawn | 15.00 | 13.7 | 26-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Star Command | 10.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ill Will | 15.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Giggle Factory | 15.00 | 15.4 | 29-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Mr Thrifty | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Yankee Empire | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Lucky Curlin | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Basin | 3.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Three Technique | 3.50 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | American Butterfly | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | He’s Super Lucky | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Excession | 8.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Social Afleet | 12.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Eagles Palace | 10.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Federale | 15.00 | 12.7 | 24-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bernin’ Thru Gold | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Variant Perception | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Halladay | 5.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lonhtwist | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Saintly Samurai | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Penalty | 4.50 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
| 6 | 6 | King Cause | 8.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Hoboe | 3.50 | 10.9 | 21-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Morrison | 8.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Uncle Sigh | 20.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rapt | 8.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Long Haul Bay | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Restoring Hope | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Borracho | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Identity Politics | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Majestic Affair | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | No Distortion | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Own Agenda | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Giuseppe the Great | 15.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Be Gone Daddy | 12.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Caress S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Morticia | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Significant Form | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Factorofwon | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Broadway Run | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mrs. Ramona G. | 4.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Gossip (IRE) | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fire Key | 5.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mominou | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Jc’s Shooting Star | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Internet of Things | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Daddy Knows | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Pipes | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Masterkey | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nutzforboltz | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Not So Quiet Man | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Bad Guy | 6.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Riendo | 6.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | He’smyluckyfellow | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Monaghan | 8.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Hokulea | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Steelersfanforlife | 10.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Risky Sour | 15.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Fleet Admiral | 30.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.