August 10, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5A | 5 | Peter’s Project | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Blame the Thief | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Startup Nation | 1.80 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | The Crocheron Kid | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Cloontia | 4.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tiz a Chance | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wicked Freud | 3.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7A | 7 | Broadway Bay | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | Big Thicket | 10.00 | 16 | 30-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Bassman Dave | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Later Cat | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Luna’s in Charge | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Seven Is Heaven | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Quiet Out East | 2.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Clear the Ramp | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | The Joke’s On You | 3.50 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Apex Predator | 30.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bank On This | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Yankee Division | 30.00 | 13.2 | 25-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Lucky Curlin | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Decorated Invader | 2.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Summer to Remember | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Fame to Famous | 3.50 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Eagles Palace | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Yukon Eric | 5.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | My Sacred Place | 6.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | No Bad Days | 15.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Glynn County | 8.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | City Guy | 20.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Elios Milos | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Running Violence | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Talent Scout | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mandatory Payout | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bustin Mach Four | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Belleville Spring | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Call the Cat | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Wicked Trick | 4.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Hot Mesa | 10.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Straphanger | 20.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Ajaaweed | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tumbling Sky | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bellavia | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kittansett | 2.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Famished | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Irish Front | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Good Scout | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Social Afleet | 15.00 | 13.7 | 26-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Ghost of the Mambo | 12.00 | 15.5 | 29-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Catch a Thrill | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Saint Moon | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Worthington | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Noble Freud | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Paper Clip | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Turf War | 3.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cadeau de Paix | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Getmotherarose | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gracetown | 15.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Cardiac Kid | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gozilla | 2.50 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 9A | 8 | Ox Bridge | 3.50 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Moonshine Now | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Stick Figure | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Gear Jockey | 3.50 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Option Value | 3.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sprawl | 15.00 | 12.4 | 23-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Prince of Caps | 12.00 | 13.7 | 26-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Hostile Witness | 12.00 | 19.7 | 37-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Saratoga Special S. Presented By Miller Lite
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Long Weekend | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Noose | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Green Light Go | 2.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Peruvian Boy | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | King Snake | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Iberico | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tuggle | 4.50 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zyramid | 5.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Fourstardave H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Uni (GB) | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Raging Bull (FR) | 3.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Got Stormy | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Made You Look | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | March to the Arch | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hembree | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Gidu (IRE) | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ostilio (GB) | 10.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Krampus | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dr. Edgar | 8.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Graceful Princess | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | La Chancla | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Stonesintheroad | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Slimey | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Alisio | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tapping Pearl | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Puffery | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Diamond Crazy | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Wicked Grin | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Magnesite | 4.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Alphalfa | 2.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blue Parrot | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Danzante | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Triton’s Song | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Dove Shoot | 10.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hudson Overpass | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Valmont | 5.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Game Break | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | I’m Elmer J Fudd | 8.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Yousaidhello | 20.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Capt. Courageous | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Burkey’s Bro | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Big Wonder | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Masterprize | 30.00 | 14.4 | 27-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.