Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, August 14, 2019

August 14, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Snap Decision 2.50 2.7 5-1
6 6 Gaye Breeze (IRE) 8.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Tomgarrow (IRE) 3.50 3.9 7-1
8 8 Whitman’s Poetry 4.50 3.9 7-1
4 4 Renown (GB) 6.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Go Get the Basil 10.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Zanzi Win (FR) 5.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Roller Rolls On 12.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Beyond Gone 1.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 More Thunder 4.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Montana Man 6.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Dan the Man Can 4.50 3.9 7-1
7 7 Mr Phil 15.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Stone Guitar 12.00 5 9-1
6 6 King of American 8.00 6.1 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Lord Simba 8.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Aristocratic 2.50 3 6-1
3 3 Reason to Soar 3.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Mad Munnys 3.50 4.8 9-1
6 6 Orpheus (ARG) 6.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Regalian 4.50 6 11-1
7 7 Will Did It 12.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Gosilently 2.00 3.6 7-1
3 2 Masterkey 15.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Dublin Pub 15.00 5.1 10-1
8 6 Hokulea 12.00 5.6 10-1
11 8 Bad Guy 3.00 5.7 11-1
10 7 Nutzforboltz 8.00 5.8 11-1
5 3 Honorable Hero 8.00 6.6 12-1
12 9 Risky Sour 8.00 7.8 15-1
6 4 Steelersfanforlife 5.00 8 15-1
2 2 Kerry Boy 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Daddy Knows 1.40 SCRATCH
9 9 Bebe Banker 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 My Bronx Tail 2.50 2.9 5-1
2 2 Katama Moonlight 4.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 My Happy Place 3.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Ocean Fire 6.00 3.6 7-1
7 6 Comic 8.00 4.3 8-1
6 5 Stand for the Flag 4.00 5 9-1
5 5 Navasha 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Devils Rendezvous 6.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Astoria Kitten 2.50 4.6 9-1
10 10 Mazal Eighteen 8.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Sister Beauty 8.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 Kiss and Run 4.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 English Breeze 8.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Sainte Mere Eglise 10.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Big Bounty 10.00 7 13-1
7 7 Dustinthewind 20.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 More Than Silver 12.00 8.6 16-1
11 11 Let It Slide 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Bolton Landing S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Kimari 0.60 2.2 4-1
4 3 Abscond 4.00 3.1 6-1
7 6 Classy Sadie 12.00 3.3 6-1
6 5 Champagne Humor 8.00 4 7-1
1 1 Vast 5.00 5 9-1
3 2 Persian Queen 15.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Dontyouremember 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Allured 0.60 2.9 5-1
1 1 Stage Left 4.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Passcode 8.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Macca Tree 15.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Spectator Sport 10.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Raphael 12.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Violent Delights 12.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Dublin Green 30.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Harv Won’t Tap 2.50 2.9 5-1
11 8 Golden Spear 4.00 3 6-1
10 7 Sycamore Lane 5.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Basha 10.00 4.7 9-1
9 6 Yes I See 6.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Coltrane 8.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Total Tap 3.50 5.1 10-1
3 3 Tactical Pursuit (IRE) 15.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Armament 0.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Turco Bravo (CHI) 4.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Simma Cum Laude 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Mills 5.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Playthatfunnymusic 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Morissette 3.50 2.2 4-1
12 9 Subsidiary 6.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 A Dixie Twister 4.00 3.8 7-1
9 7 Questeq 8.00 4.3 8-1
7 5 Proportionality 10.00 5 9-1
8 6 Dancingwthdaffodls 8.00 5.2 10-1
10 8 Linda’s Ballet 6.00 5.7 11-1
5 3 Overheated 12.00 6.1 12-1
6 4 Brass Ring 15.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Overtime Olivia 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Carrizo 1.60 SCRATCH
11 11 Ardara Belle (FR) 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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