Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 12, 2019

September 12, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Kenai Cool 4.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Romantic Attack 3.50 2.9 5-1
2 2 Fortressa 2.50 3.5 7-1
3 3 Ms Meer 4.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Prancipants 30.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Victory Rose 20.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Annie Time Girl 12.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Making a Marc 12.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Sacramento Q 3.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 Elusive Force 2.50 3.7 7-1
5 5 Lee’s Luck 3.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Alpha Boy 6.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Offlee Fun 6.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Ghost Position 15.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Helen Hayes 2.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Running Vicky 10.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Fringe 5.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Kingsbury Dream 4.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Uknowiaintlying 30.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Have the Facts 8.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Chainmail 6.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 W W Ace’s Up 30.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Mind Trappe 3.50 2.6 5-1
5 5 Word of Truth 2.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 Im the Best I Know 3.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Grey Mask 3.50 3.9 7-1
1 1 Ferlin Husky 12.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Back Page 8.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 B Salty 20.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Demand Ransom 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Easter Music 8.00 2.7 5-1
3 2 Jeggyjeggy 2.50 3.1 6-1
11 7 Knockyourblockoff 5.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 Club Soda 20.00 SCRATCH
6 4 Tres Generaciones 15.00 5.3 10-1
8 6 Wellfield 6.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Blue Steel 4.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Sequins Storm 5.00 6.6 12-1
9 9 Bourbon Tan 12.00 SCRATCH
5 3 Tio Chuy 20.00 7.1 13-1
4 4 Radiant Castle 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Do Not Enter 1.80 1.8 3-1
5 3 Boom Box 4.50 4.7 9-1
6 6 Mongol Bull 3.50 SCRATCH
10 4 Boston Charley 8.00 5.4 10-1
11 5 Strike Quiet 20.00 5.5 10-1
2 1 Bajan Rhythm 20.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Sea of Makebelieve 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Gray Mensch 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Jive Daddy 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 M C Squared 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Little Baltar 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Brilliant Richie 3.50 3.7 7-1
5 5 Heisfancy 30.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Ioya Again 12.00 SCRATCH
6 4 Baroque 6.00 4.4 8-1
8 6 Jeff the Lion 5.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Changi 2.50 4.5 9-1
7 5 Behind Enemy Lines 4.50 5.1 10-1
9 9 Risky Risky Risky 20.00 SCRATCH
10 7 You Split Tens 12.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Two Pair 20.00 7.4 14-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 1 Nurse Sadie 8.00 2.6 5-1
7 4 Bonita Bay 1.60 2.9 5-1
5 2 Stopshoppingamy 4.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 Mind for Mischief 3.50 SCRATCH
9 6 Quality too Spare 20.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Lady C 20.00 SCRATCH
6 3 Tizaladybug 30.00 5.1 10-1
8 5 Blanca Rose 5.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Lucky I Guess 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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