Sports from the Basement

Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 12, 2019

September 12, 2019 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Bareeqa 0.60 2.7 5-1
2 2 Vip Nation 4.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Pure Praise 3.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Glam 6.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Miss Loyalty 30.00 4.3 8-1
7 6 Puparee 15.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Stay Fond 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Spice Road 1.20 1.6 3-1
1 1 Mubarmaj 1.80 2.9 5-1
5 5 Road to Meath 6.00 3 6-1
4 4 Ownitifyouwantit 6.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Hail Michigan 7.00 4.1 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Hawaiian Noises 2.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Clench 1.80 3 6-1
5 5 Absentee 8.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Hardcore Folklore 3.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Booby Trap 6.00 4 8-1
6 6 Trance 30.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Monkeyseemonkeydo 3.00 2.9 6-1
9 6 What’s to Blame 3.50 3.6 7-1
11 8 Lookin At Roses 4.50 3.6 7-1
5 4 Higher Authority 4.00 4 8-1
4 3 Deft 6.00 4.3 8-1
6 5 Teachable Moment 15.00 4.9 9-1
10 7 Conviction Trade 20.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Brahe 20.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Duress 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Foti 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Cobble Hill 5.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Final Say 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 1 Special Story 2.50 2.9 5-1
2 2 The Caretaker 4.00 3.6 7-1
3A 3 Sudden Surprise 2.50 4 8-1
5 5 Five Star Bunt 6.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 H Man 8.00 4.9 9-1
8 7 Zonic 4.50 5.3 10-1
4 4 Show Prince 20.00 5.4 10-1
9 8 Speightful Kitten 3.00 6 11-1
7 7 Blue Belt 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Ian Glass 3.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Rohrbacher 6.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Baffin Bay 5.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Spinning Kitten 5.00 5 9-1
6 6 Artemus Bridge 6.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Go Poke the Bear 4.00 5.7 11-1
10 8 Southern Brigade 4.50 6 11-1
4 4 Impazible Odds 12.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 Beachside 2.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Seanow 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Pauseforthecause 2.00 1.9 4-1
5 4 Honor Way 2.50 2.2 4-1
3 2 Lezendary 3.50 4.3 8-1
6 5 China Rider 12.00 4.4 8-1
4 3 Squan’s Kingdom 10.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Go Noni Go 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Recess 2.50 3.9 7-1
1 1 Farcical 4.00 4.6 9-1
5 4 Fika 3.50 4.6 9-1
4 3 Big Expense 6.00 4.8 9-1
6 5 Katook 20.00 5.7 11-1
8 7 Handle With Care 10.00 6.1 11-1
10 9 Rhinegold 20.00 6.1 11-1
7 6 Stunning Beauty 12.00 7.6 14-1
14 11 Bull Feathers 30.00 7.8 15-1
9 8 Scarlet’s Command 30.00 8.8 17-1
12 10 Violetas Visions 50.00 9.6 18-1
3 3 Firestormy 30.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Low Is Laine 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Gunboat Diplomacy 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Frosty Linz 10.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Rare Gift 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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