October 12, 2019 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Tiz Epic | 1.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bow Maker | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Annoula | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Fortune’s Girl | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Super Twenty Seven | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | All About Reyana | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Musical Thunder | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Decorated Ace | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Positive Skew | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Seaside Dancer | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tempers Way | 1.80 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Retro Street | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bronco Sally | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Candid Desire | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3A | 3 | Summer Bourbon | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Blue Belt | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5A | 5 | Gypsum Johnny | 1.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | H Man | 12.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mo Diddley | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | O Shea Can U See | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Honey I’m Good | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Peaceful | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Saratoga Treasure | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Zalia | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ebullient | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Forgotten Hero | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Betty F (GB) | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Gypsy Janie | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Concerned | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Brush Country | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Carrier Landing | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5A | 5 | Seanow | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | The Sicarii | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Thesis | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mandatory Payout | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ari’s Naughty Luca | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7A | 7 | Booby Trap | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Turbo Drive | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Notorious Flirt | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Big Package | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Smite | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Our Troubadour | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Boom Boom Kaboom | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Mitzrayim | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Power Up Paynter | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Him She Kisses | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Number One Dillon | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Floral Park S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Goldwood | 1.40 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fire Key | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Fear No Evil | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Mominou | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Misericordia (GB) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Lady Mamba | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | I’llhandalthecash | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Dynatail | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Perjury Trap | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Turnagain Tide | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Extreme Force | 12.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hemlock | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ashaar | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kickin’ Kirby | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Unprecedented | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Starting Over | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Sands Point S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | New and Improved | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Feel Glorious (GB) | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Romantic Pursuit | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Souper Escape | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Olendon (FR) | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dyna Passer | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ledecka | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Bourbon in May | 5.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Inscom | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Clyde’s Runner | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Big Muddy | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Tangled Web | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Mental Model | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Tiz Morning | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Boppin Anda Weavin | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Lundqvist | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | La Hara (IRE) | 1.60 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Super Silver | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.