October 12, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Summer Blossom | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fun Paddy | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lemon Chill | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Zena Rules | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tiz Ella | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Harmony Victory | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Eve Harrington | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bahama Channel | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fearless Rocket | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Baquero Flies | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Americain Joey | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Olympic Romp | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Let Me Lead | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Corkman | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bring Me a Check | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Game Set and Match | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Niall | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Warrant Officer | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Blanda | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | American Anthem | 0.60 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Seven Trumpets | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Line Judge | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Whereshetoldmetogo | 0.60 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Colonelsdarktemper | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fact Finding | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Loving Moment | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Unchained (IRE) | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ilha Do Mel | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Great Island | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Hermajestycommands | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Macabre | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Georgia Clay | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Joy of Learning | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mean Mary | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Princesa Blanca | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sheza Rockstar | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Piece by Peace | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Canadian Sunset | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Sister Hanan | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Summer in Saratoga | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Pat Pat Pat | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Copper Fiddle | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Debating | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Box of Chocolates | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Getyourmindright | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Pawnbroker | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Delinquent | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Candy Store | 3.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sterling Hope | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Firery Tale | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Square the Circle | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Military Hop | 12.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wild About Candy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Flatoya | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Day Dayenu | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Turtle Trax | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ursula | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Shackadelic | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Party Lights | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Loaded | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Spartanka | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Miss Important | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Take Charge Patti | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Olive Reins | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Palio Flag | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Bluegrass Sky | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Carotari | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1A | 1 | No Bang No Boom (IRE) | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cuestion de Tiempo | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 11 | 11 | I Can Do Anything | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fast Boat | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Tina’s Exchange | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5A | 5 | Onthewaytonevrland (IRE) | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Texas Wedge | 4.50 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Better Watch Out | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Firecrow | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mustaaqeem (AUS) | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Augie | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Curate | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cautious Giant | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Battle Station | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Conquest Big E | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Belle Tapisserie | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sevier | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Driven to Compete | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Always a Suspect | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Futile | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Racer | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cinco Star | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Queen Elizabeth Ii Challenge Cup S. Presented By Lane’s End
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Cambier Parc | 1.60 | 1.9 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Regal Glory | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cafe Americano | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Varenka | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Princesa Carolina | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Kelsey’s Cross | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Magnetic Charm (GB) | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Castle Lady (IRE) | 3.50 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Prancealot (IRE) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Club Car | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | First Wave | 5.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sister’s Creed | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Getridofwhatailesu | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Olin’s Honor | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Newellton | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Proudly Pacific | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Awesome One | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Frills | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Crown Jewel | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Revealing Quality | 15.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ruby Q | 30.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Quality too Spare | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Lesley’s Song | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.