November 11, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Rosebud’s Hope | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Arch of Troy | 1.40 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jabuticaba | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Annie Rocks | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Justin Time | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fed Up Fired Up | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Peaches and Spice | 50.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Customerexperience | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Quantum Computing | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mariposa d’Oro | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Money Never Sleeps | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Twirling Faith | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Annoula | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Halo City | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 1 | Tale of Mist | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Business Cycle | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Data Driven | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4A | 4 | Gypsum Johnny | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Orpheus (ARG) | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Toohottoevenspeak | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sandy Lane | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Starlite Mission | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Play Me a Memory | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5A | 4 | Bertranda | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | First Forever | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Letmetakethiscall | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Orchid Party | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Cartwheelin Lulu | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mazmania | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Cotton Candy Cutie | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Bourbon Bay | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jack of Clubs | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Chowda | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Noble Endeavor | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Selfmade | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tercero | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Oconee | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Oneshotatforever | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Beta | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Tricky Magician | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Willing to Speed | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | I’m Elmer J Fudd | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Legion Storm | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Solar | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Risky Sour | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Ninja Dust | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Fotis | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mr. Vincent | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Uncle Curly | 3.50 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Dull Knife | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Da Meister | 50.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Linns Boy | 50.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Time Expired | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fairy Link | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Inclunation | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Wild One Forever | 4.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Quizzical Cajun | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Duress | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Clyde’s Runner | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Honey Won’t | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Standup | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hurricane Hill | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lundqvist | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mad Munnys | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Boppin Anda Weavin | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Smile Bryan | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Tiz Morning | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | English Humor | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Big Wonder | 50.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 9A | 9 | Mohican | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16A | 16 | Bustin Hoffman | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Tapage | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mischief Afoot | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Portos | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Country Grammer | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Vintage Print | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hard Sting | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mo and Go | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Juulstone | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Afleet Brody | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | King of American | 50.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Out of Trouble | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Short Pour | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Classic Lady | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fetching | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dynamite Kitten | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Vip Nation | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cirque | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Plink Freud | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sandra’s Mine | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Abby Normal | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fusi | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Pendolino | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kathy’s Cause | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Tarallucci | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Freudycatfever | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pins and Needles | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Here Comes Meg | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Deja Raconte | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Molly’s Nighthawk | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Barbara P | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Princess Leiha | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Lady Cat | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 11 | Mighty Knight | 50.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.