November 13, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 10 | Indian Lover | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Zypto | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1A | 7 | Mark of the Z | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sazerac | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 5 | Aquadini | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Begotten | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Big Al | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Sacred Kiki Bird | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Starlin | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 8 | 9 | Pleasant Sunrise | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Bold Esther | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nocturnal Mission | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Its Cold in Dehere | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Leah | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Urban Kat | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gianna’s Gift | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Luna Fortis | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Stolen Beauty | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Indomitable Spirit | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Classy Justice | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Upgrade Me | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Zebecca | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lady to the Max | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Actress On Board | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Warrant Officer | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pray for Jake | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Travelin’ Song | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Baron It All | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Let Me Lead | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Wicked Wednesday | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Madam Novetzke | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Axis | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Cane Break | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Yadi | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Florida Flash | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mrwilloughby | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Niall | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Carignan | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 13 | 13 | St. Paddy’s Daddy | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hardly Blue | 20.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Lovely Loyree | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Peru (GB) | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Temple Fur | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Psalmody | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Miss O’Hara | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Embarrassing | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Little Code | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Love On Tides | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lexington Grace (IRE) | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Data Damsel | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Montmartre | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lontani | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mine Inspector | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ice Sphere | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | True to Dixie | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Amani’s Kitten | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cj’s Billy’sempire | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Derby City | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wings Up | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hitthegroundrunnin | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Ted W | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Strut the Ring | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Gladtobehere | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Frost Or Frippery | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Peekacho | 4.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Containment | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Steel Shot | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Risky Town | 6.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Mark My Way | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Satellite | 6.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Honor Mission | 8.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Big Iron | 12.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sumner | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mucho Macho Bets | 15.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 |
| 12 | 12 | High Risk Strategy | 15.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tales of War | 20.00 | 13.1 | 25-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Bibiana | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Saxony | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Swiss Skydiver | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Super Legs | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wellington Wonder | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Kertara | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Mi Bella | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dixieland Traffic | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Spoken With a Kiss | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Moonlight Dancing | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Zidikai | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Tough Love | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Declined | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Uncapped | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Infinite | 2.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Grade One | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | American Mandate | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bump Bailey | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Get Some Mo | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Grit and Curiosity | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Thirsty Betrayal | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Rock n’ Candy | 50.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Howard Roark | 50.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 |
| 14 | 14 | El Capa Rojo | 50.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Chasin Charlie | 30.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Front Page | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Royal Edition | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Horsefeathers | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Greenspan | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Poppy Joe Rocks | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lady’s Weekend | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Promised | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Misterbluesky | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Corbin | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stack Em High | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Helluva Life | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.