December 5, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Kathy’s Cause | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Lookbothways | 1.60 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Tarallucci | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Here Comes Meg | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Becca Takes Charge | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Rousey | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Pendolino | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Highleelikelee | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Alexacrat | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 11 | Barbara P | 6.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Firestormy | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Lady Cat | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Mighty Knight | 50.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Crea’s Bklyn Law | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Baffin Bay | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Allured | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Zealous | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dark Storm | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Family Biz | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Foolish Ghost | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Tepin S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Quality Heat | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Enola Gay | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Logic N Reason | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | More Glitter | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stretchthestory | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Antoinette | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | I Dare U | 1.20 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Kid Bourbon | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fast Break | 1.80 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mutakaamil | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Road Home | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Perceived | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Superfan | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fabulous Fun | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Knockout Punch | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Sudden Surprise | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Blue Belt | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | H Man | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | We Should Talk | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jewel Can Disco | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mission Command | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | San Juan Diego | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Take It to Scale | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Vicar’s Legend | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bourbon Bay | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dangerous Edge | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Superego | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | First Deputy | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Whichwaytomalibu | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Future Book | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Montauk Memories | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Chiricahua | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Our Papa G | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Gracetown | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Girl of Tosconova | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Champagne Bliss | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | The Great Johanna | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Derby Day Zip | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Summer Fantasy | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Kingdom’s Queen | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Floss Dancer | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 6 | Playwright | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Impazible Odds | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 2 | Southern Brigade | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 5 | Vintage Hollywood | 3.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Graded On a Curve | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Dashing Dan | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 1 | Danny California | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Jo’s Bold Cat | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Market Bubble | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 3 | Constant Knight | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 16 | 7 | Pipes | 1.80 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Albie | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Big Wonder | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 4 | Kerry Boy | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Steelersfanforlife | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Uncle Curly | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | More Graytful | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Brewman | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Convict | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tercero | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Bronze Lion | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Graycapade | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Beta | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Advanced Strategy | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Tiz Kaz Now | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mr. Tag | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.