Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, December 5, 2019

December 5, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Kathy’s Cause 3.50 3.6 7-1
12 10 Lookbothways 1.60 3.7 7-1
2 1 Tarallucci 3.00 4.1 8-1
5 3 Here Comes Meg 10.00 4.3 8-1
11 9 Becca Takes Charge 3.00 4.3 8-1
8 6 Rousey 2.50 4.6 9-1
7 5 Pendolino 3.50 4.8 9-1
1 1 Highleelikelee 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Alexacrat 30.00 SCRATCH
13 11 Barbara P 6.00 8.3 16-1
10 8 Firestormy 30.00 8.9 17-1
4 2 Lady Cat 20.00 9.1 17-1
9 7 Mighty Knight 50.00 9.4 18-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Crea’s Bklyn Law 2.50 3.1 6-1
6 5 Baffin Bay 15.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Allured 3.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Zealous 3.00 3.6 7-1
5 4 Dark Storm 3.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Family Biz 8.00 4.2 8-1
7 6 Foolish Ghost 10.00 4.3 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Tepin S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Quality Heat 6.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Enola Gay 1.60 SCRATCH
2 2 Logic N Reason 2.50 2.9 5-1
5 5 More Glitter 10.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Stretchthestory 8.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Antoinette 3.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 I Dare U 1.20 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Kid Bourbon 2.50 2.4 4-1
7 6 Fast Break 1.80 2.9 6-1
5 5 Mutakaamil 4.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Road Home 10.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Perceived 6.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Superfan 15.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Fabulous Fun 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Knockout Punch 30.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Sudden Surprise 3.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Blue Belt 5.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 H Man 8.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 We Should Talk 3.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Jewel Can Disco 4.50 5.1 10-1
2 2 Mission Command 8.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 San Juan Diego 8.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Take It to Scale 12.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Vicar’s Legend 20.00 8.1 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bourbon Bay 1.60 2.3 4-1
7 7 Dangerous Edge 3.50 2.9 6-1
6 6 Superego 8.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 First Deputy 8.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Whichwaytomalibu 6.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Future Book 6.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Montauk Memories 10.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Chiricahua 20.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Our Papa G 30.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Gracetown 5.00 3.3 6-1
4 3 Girl of Tosconova 6.00 3.8 7-1
5 4 Champagne Bliss 4.00 3.9 7-1
7 6 The Great Johanna 3.50 4 8-1
1 1 Derby Day Zip 20.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Summer Fantasy 6.00 4.3 8-1
8 7 Kingdom’s Queen 2.50 4.5 9-1
3 3 Floss Dancer 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
15 6 Playwright 2.50 4.9 9-1
6 6 Impazible Odds 12.00 SCRATCH
5 2 Southern Brigade 4.00 5.3 10-1
14 5 Vintage Hollywood 3.50 5.6 11-1
9 9 Graded On a Curve 2.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Dashing Dan 10.00 SCRATCH
3 1 Danny California 8.00 6.6 12-1
10 10 Jo’s Bold Cat 4.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Market Bubble 15.00 SCRATCH
7 3 Constant Knight 20.00 7.7 14-1
16 7 Pipes 1.80 7.7 14-1
8 8 Albie 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Big Wonder 30.00 SCRATCH
12 4 Kerry Boy 30.00 9 17-1
11 11 Steelersfanforlife 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Uncle Curly 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 More Graytful 5.00 2.1 4-1
6 5 Brewman 8.00 2.4 5-1
7 6 Convict 4.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Tercero 3.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Bronze Lion 4.50 3.2 6-1
10 9 Graycapade 8.00 3.4 6-1
4 3 Beta 20.00 4.2 8-1
9 8 Advanced Strategy 10.00 4.3 8-1
2 1 Tiz Kaz Now 15.00 5.2 10-1
8 7 Mr. Tag 20.00 5.2 10-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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