Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, December 5, 2019

December 5, 2019 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Given Kisses 4.50 4.2 8-1
6 6 Red Princess 5.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 For Real Alice 4.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Custom for Carlita 6.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Custom for Corales 10.00 6 11-1
2 2 Daylight Deelite 3.50 6.7 13-1
7 7 Kehron’s Creed 5.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Boggidyboggidy 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Violent Storm 2.50 3.7 7-1
6 6 Dontbefoolish 10.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Morethanfishin 8.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 He’s a Climber 4.50 4.7 9-1
3 3 Yeehaw 12.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Guitar King 6.00 5.6 10-1
9 8 Slick Dude 8.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Djinn of Djibouti 8.00 6.6 12-1
10 9 Hot Fudge Louie 8.00 7 13-1
8 8 Dyna Ghost 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Street Conscious 4.50 3.2 6-1
5 5 Oh Bette 1.40 3.6 7-1
7 7 Ms Meer 8.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Hero of Gold 20.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Dragon Dragon 4.00 5 9-1
4 4 Our Lucky Star 12.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Interslew 10.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Wasnt Joking 10.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Tulanian 3.00 1.4 3-1
6 5 Sense of Self 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 4 Titan’s Treasure 8.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Happy Thought 8.00 5.1 10-1
7 6 Tenderness 10.00 5.2 10-1
8 7 Malibu Marlee 4.00 5.2 10-1
4 3 Eleanor Roosevelt 6.00 5.4 10-1
9 8 Luna Go Luna 10.00 6.6 12-1
10 9 Lillie Dell 12.00 7.6 14-1
11 10 Twilight Glow 12.00 8.6 16-1
3 3 Razorback Honey 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Cazadora 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Quiet Dawn 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Dynamite Gift 5.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Flugel Binder 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Forced 1.60 1.4 3-1
4 2 Flashy Brew 2.00 1.6 3-1
6 4 Bird Dog 10.00 3.3 6-1
5 3 Chesapeake Bay 20.00 4.7 9-1
7 5 Grove Daddy 12.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Hidden Ruler 3.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Calle Patron 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Skygaze 1.60 2.3 4-1
6 6 Ginseng 4.50 3.1 6-1
10 9 Dominga 5.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Queen Bridget 12.00 5.4 10-1
9 8 Itsarollofthedice 8.00 5.5 10-1
8 7 Crafty Angel 12.00 5.9 11-1
2 1 Ignis 10.00 6.6 12-1
3 3 Vestal 10.00 6.7 13-1
1 2 Sentimentaljourney 20.00 8 15-1
1A 9 Super Jen 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Violane 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Big Bella Brown 3.50 3.5 7-1
1 1 Charge the Line 4.50 4.6 9-1
8 8 Asongforyou 12.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Double Barrel Man 1.60 5 9-1
2 2 Beto 8.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Calimambo 8.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Saltee Stark 8.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Farewell Time 15.00 6.5 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Elsa 5.00 3.8 7-1
4 3 Curluck 8.00 4.5 9-1
10 8 Orageuse 6.00 5.2 10-1
11 9 Dagny 12.00 5.6 10-1
13 11 Cubs Win 8.00 5.6 10-1
8 6 Embarrassing 12.00 6.3 12-1
7 5 Holly Go Lightly 4.00 6.5 12-1
12 10 Don’t Tell Marge 10.00 7.2 14-1
5 4 Zofelle (IRE) 4.50 7.8 15-1
9 7 Miss Mercken 12.00 8.1 15-1
14 12 Little Code 12.00 8.2 15-1
2 1 Houston Strong 20.00 8.9 17-1
1 1 Lexington Grace (IRE) 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Bee Balm 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Makealitlemischief 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Wildwood Dejavu 3.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Perfect Pirate 6.00 3.5 7-1
6 5 True West 5.00 4.1 8-1
7 6 Flash Attack 2.50 5 9-1
5 5 Butta Got Uncs Bac 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Cee R Bee 6.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Take Charge Easy 10.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Ats a My Songa 20.00 6.5 12-1
8 7 Dude Greeley 30.00 8.6 16-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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