December 5, 2019 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5 | 5 | Given Kisses | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
6 | 6 | Red Princess | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
4 | 4 | For Real Alice | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
3 | 3 | Custom for Carlita | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
1 | 1 | Custom for Corales | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
2 | 2 | Daylight Deelite | 3.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
7 | 7 | Kehron’s Creed | 5.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
8 | 8 | Boggidyboggidy | 12.00 | SCRATCH |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | 2 | Violent Storm | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
6 | 6 | Dontbefoolish | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
4 | 4 | Morethanfishin | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
5 | 5 | He’s a Climber | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
3 | 3 | Yeehaw | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
7 | 7 | Guitar King | 6.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
9 | 8 | Slick Dude | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
1 | 1 | Djinn of Djibouti | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
10 | 9 | Hot Fudge Louie | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
8 | 8 | Dyna Ghost | 12.00 | SCRATCH |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
8 | 8 | Street Conscious | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
5 | 5 | Oh Bette | 1.40 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
7 | 7 | Ms Meer | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
2 | 2 | Hero of Gold | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
6 | 6 | Dragon Dragon | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
4 | 4 | Our Lucky Star | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
1 | 1 | Interslew | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
3 | 3 | Wasnt Joking | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | 2 | Tulanian | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
6 | 5 | Sense of Self | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
5 | 4 | Titan’s Treasure | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
1 | 1 | Happy Thought | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
7 | 6 | Tenderness | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
8 | 7 | Malibu Marlee | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
4 | 3 | Eleanor Roosevelt | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
9 | 8 | Luna Go Luna | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
10 | 9 | Lillie Dell | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
11 | 10 | Twilight Glow | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
3 | 3 | Razorback Honey | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
12 | 12 | Cazadora | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
13 | 13 | Quiet Dawn | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
14 | 14 | Dynamite Gift | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
15 | 15 | Flugel Binder | 20.00 | SCRATCH |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | 1 | Forced | 1.60 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
4 | 2 | Flashy Brew | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
6 | 4 | Bird Dog | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
5 | 3 | Chesapeake Bay | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
7 | 5 | Grove Daddy | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
1 | 1 | Hidden Ruler | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
3 | 3 | Calle Patron | 12.00 | SCRATCH |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5 | 5 | Skygaze | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
6 | 6 | Ginseng | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
10 | 9 | Dominga | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
4 | 4 | Queen Bridget | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
9 | 8 | Itsarollofthedice | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
8 | 7 | Crafty Angel | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
2 | 1 | Ignis | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
3 | 3 | Vestal | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
1 | 2 | Sentimentaljourney | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
1A | 9 | Super Jen | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
7 | 7 | Violane | 15.00 | SCRATCH |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
4 | 4 | Big Bella Brown | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
1 | 1 | Charge the Line | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
8 | 8 | Asongforyou | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
6 | 6 | Double Barrel Man | 1.60 | 5 | 9-1 |
2 | 2 | Beto | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
7 | 7 | Calimambo | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
3 | 3 | Saltee Stark | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
5 | 5 | Farewell Time | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3 | 2 | Elsa | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
4 | 3 | Curluck | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
10 | 8 | Orageuse | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
11 | 9 | Dagny | 12.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
13 | 11 | Cubs Win | 8.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
8 | 6 | Embarrassing | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
7 | 5 | Holly Go Lightly | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
12 | 10 | Don’t Tell Marge | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
5 | 4 | Zofelle (IRE) | 4.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
9 | 7 | Miss Mercken | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
14 | 12 | Little Code | 12.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
2 | 1 | Houston Strong | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
1 | 1 | Lexington Grace (IRE) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
6 | 6 | Bee Balm | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
15 | 15 | Makealitlemischief | 12.00 | SCRATCH |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9 | 8 | Wildwood Dejavu | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
3 | 3 | Perfect Pirate | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
6 | 5 | True West | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
7 | 6 | Flash Attack | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
5 | 5 | Butta Got Uncs Bac | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
4 | 4 | Cee R Bee | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
1 | 1 | Take Charge Easy | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
2 | 2 | Ats a My Songa | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
8 | 7 | Dude Greeley | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.