December 6, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Blahnik | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Beauty Buzz | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lots to Like | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Spin Control | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Our Ticket | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hickory Made | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lovely Lucky | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Uhtred | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Felix in Fabula | 1.60 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Everyonelovesjames | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Southern Bridge | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Chantry Flats | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Creative Style | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Blockade | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Ghost Giant | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Go Poke the Bear | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Channel Island | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 5 | Quality Choice | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Silver Bank | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bean Indiscreet | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Girl’s Wave | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Medellin | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Della Lute | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Ladycliff | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bellamy Bigs | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cemetery V I P | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Graetz | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pippi | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kaz’s Kitten | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Keep Your Distance | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | My Chesa Charm | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cotton Candy Cutie | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Free Kitty | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Awesome Quick | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Blissful Breeze | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Little Nanny | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jacqueline D | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stars Wilburn | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Princess Mikayah | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Speed Talks | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Super Twenty Seven | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Summer Belief | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 12 | 12 | La Negrita | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Big Cyn | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | All About Reyana | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Honey Bourbon | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Annoula | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Barker Lane | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Over Thirsty | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Eye’m Gone | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Felony Melanie | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6A | 5 | Harv Won’t Tap | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Gypsum Johnny | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Shalako | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tour de Force | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Neighborhood Bully | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Barnacle Bill | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Purimeter | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Real Dan | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 8 | Seven Lilies | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Big Thicket | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Sandy Lane | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Sir Ballantine | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Eye’s On You | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Trouble for Skylar | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sweet Meadow Mist | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Ella’s Song | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My Last Million | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Gilda Marie | 3.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Overtime Olivia | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fair Lassie | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Wailin Josie | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Carlisle Belle | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 8 | Cash Offer | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Bank Examiner | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 1 | Sadie Lady | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Miss Mystique | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | First Appeal | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 2 | Magic Fairy | 2.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Short Pour | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Lovely La La | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 6 | Makin’ Out | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | She Takes Charge | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 5 | Forgotten Hero | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 15 | 9 | Bertranda | 10.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 7 | Puffery | 8.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Beaux Arts | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Andarta | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Central Park S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Alpha Sixty Six | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 7 | Pixelate | 1.60 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Old Chestnut | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | City Man | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Chase Tracker | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Prince of Pharoahs | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Mo Ready | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Homeland | 2.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ashraq | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Mr. Kringle | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 8 | Paradiso | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fusi | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lookbothways | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Vitanza | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Trumpit | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Miss Ross | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Gray Witch | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Molly’s Nighthawk | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Aris Gal Suz | 30.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Margie Cat | 50.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sisterwilliamagnes | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Line of Roses | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Miss Jill | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.