Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Friday, December 6, 2019

December 6, 2019 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 7 Jackie Ems Pal 8.00 3.3 6-1
7 6 Desert Thief 3.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Girls Life 3.50 4.2 8-1
1A 8 Lu Sea 4.50 4.8 9-1
1 3 Rake It Up 4.50 5.3 10-1
2 1 Nola Fashion 10.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Niece Jackie Davis 8.00 5.8 11-1
3 2 Peggys Ouest 8.00 7.4 14-1
6 6 Sassy Mallory 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Andthebandplayedon 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Bayerly Seen 2.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Letsstaypositive 3.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 Call On Mischief 3.00 3 6-1
1 1 Into Humor 4.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Super Jen 8.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Fed Policy 8.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Southern Swagg 3.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Cape Rosso 2.50 3.1 6-1
4 4 Halfourretirement 4.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 Saratoga Vacation 4.50 4.2 8-1
7 7 Quisty Boy 6.00 5 9-1
1 1 Silent Cry 12.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Striking Star 8.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 1 Herbs Love 6.00 4.1 8-1
5 4 Lunar Orbit 6.00 4.3 8-1
12 10 Limage 3.00 4.3 8-1
4 2 Trust in Love 5.00 4.8 9-1
10 8 Daring 3.50 4.9 9-1
7 5 Latina Cantina 10.00 6 11-1
1 3 Passport Required 6.00 6.7 13-1
11 9 Michel It’s Autum 10.00 6.8 13-1
9 7 Iyatta 15.00 8.5 16-1
8 6 Gottabegolden 6.00 9.6 18-1
1A 14 Color Fashioned 6.00 SCRATCH
2 10 She’s Our Star 20.00 SCRATCH
2B 15 Betty Joy’s Star 20.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Shanghai Star 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Tricky Tune 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 J Rob 2.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Suvorov’s Hero 4.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Healing 4.50 4.2 8-1
2 2 Yes He Can 5.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Anywhere Road 6.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Tempt Fate 5.00 6 11-1
6 6 Double Priority 8.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Shogood 8.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Channel Won 3.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Sonoma Crush 6.00 5 9-1
7 7 Whiskey Bravo 8.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Irritator 4.50 5.5 10-1
6 6 Senor Blair 8.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 Mustang Cat 5.00 6.6 12-1
10 10 Warrior’s Kid 12.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 Fleetway 30.00 8.8 17-1
5 5 Chase for the Gold 8.00 9 17-1
11 11 Hunker Down 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Defy Expectations 2.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 Cherokee Bless 3.50 3.3 6-1
4 4 Get Directions 3.50 3.3 6-1
7 7 La Negra Noche 6.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Razorback Honey 8.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Hip Flask 8.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 La Perla 15.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 Bluebird Sing 8.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 He’s the Souperwon 6.00 2.9 5-1
9 8 Hero of the Hour 4.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Breakers Point 4.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Keep a Eye On Mike 3.50 4.1 8-1
7 7 Blackline 5.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Irish Hokie 15.00 6.3 12-1
10 9 Holy Spirit 6.00 7.9 15-1
5 5 Tapizart 20.00 8.1 15-1
4 4 Mister Mister 20.00 9.3 18-1
11 10 Zenman 30.00 9.4 18-1
3 3 Falcon Prince 20.00 10 19-1
12 12 Eat the Ticket 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Meaningful 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Kaliningrad 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Red Hot Fuego 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Letithappencarlos 6.00 2.8 5-1
7 5 Outamine 3.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Run to Fame 10.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Eatorbeeaten 8.00 4.1 8-1
8 6 Redding Coteau 12.00 4.1 8-1
6 4 Venn 6.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Rivers Rising 4.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Knockalittlelouder 3.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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