December 7, 2019 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Pure Speculation | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Gold Star Mama | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Commanding Candy | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | On the Muscle | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Vacation Lover | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Roughin the City | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ballyhack | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Geoscience | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Blanco Bronco | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Where Y’at Joe Joe | 1.80 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Whatelse Igot Todo | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cajun Carmelized | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Case’s Ticket | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Lion Heart Legend | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | D’tuff Cat Rey | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Exton | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Archrival | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Crealock | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mom Said Yes | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Uncle Andrew | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Topshop | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Custers Last Stand | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Robinson | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Newly Acquired | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Lookout Mountain | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gavins Little Sis | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | D’or Fille | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ide Stang You | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Baylor | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Star Formula | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lurey An | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Battlebus | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Butter Hut | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Radiant Castle | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Milk Chocolate | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Admiral Abe | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Snoose Goose | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Just Might | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | A Song for Arch | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | More Than A. P. | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Big Bobby Brown | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Greeley’s Banker | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | His Giant | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Whodatwhodat | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Swimhard Dreambig | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Whitney’s Flash | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pray for Lisa | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Little Girls Rule | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | I Am the Fire | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Susie’s Songster | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lady Brooklyn | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Phat and Fast | 1.60 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | C’Mon Ve | 1.80 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Major Ridge | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mikey’s Mouse | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jacobs Flyer | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Heart Warrior | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Sir Advent | 1.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Chimneyville | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lord Colliery | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | B Rasen | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Disapproval | 3.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bet Again | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Liam Skye | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Star Performer | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Blue | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Sid N Say | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kool Aid Girl | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stumberg | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Just Cruising | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.