December 12, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | American Values | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kemba | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | My Sweet Kat | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Twirling Faith | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Musical Thunder | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Miss Liana | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Tourbillon Rose | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Imperial Brew | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | My Amanjena | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Somebody | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Inclunation | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Letzgometz | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | River Knight | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fotis | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Point of Humor | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Irish Roar (IRE) | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Freedom Prince | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ink Splotz | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Alan’s Argument | 1.60 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Punchline | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mucho Sunshine | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Justinspeightofit | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Quizzical Cajun | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 1 | Mohican | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8A | 7 | Bustin Hoffman | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Oh Danny Bear | 4.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sneakiness | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Three Outlaws | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Deputy Flag | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mister Bobby | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Strategic Outlook | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Blacktop Legend | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Indawin | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Persisto | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Etana | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Cherokee Song | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Make Or Break | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | A J Rock | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sengekontacket | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Harvey’s Lil Goil | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Wicked Happy | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | First Forever | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Linda’s Ballet | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bustin Scones | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alvernia | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Dancingwthdaffodls | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Winifred J | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Collegeville Girl | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Saratoga Style | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fight On Lucy | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tiz a Kitten | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Love and Love | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Party in the Sand | 10.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Payne | 1.60 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Identity Politics | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mr. Dougie Fresh | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Aquaphobia | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Illudere | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Super Dude | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Musical America | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Devamani (FR) | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Final Say | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Loaded Joe | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Paynter’s Prize | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Crypto Gold | 1.60 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Narcissistic | 30.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Azzedine (FR) | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Seediskid | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Masterprize | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9A | 9 | Bridgetothefuture | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10A | 10 | Tio Blas | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.