December 13, 2019 Delta Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | Nod to Persia | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Changing Lanes | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Instafamous | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Drewpower | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Chrome Fire | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | He’s a Suitor | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Alydar Star | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Instan Wind | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Todayisnottheday | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Molly Golightly | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Itsnotmyjob | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tensas Weezy | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Calaja | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Goodnight Gracie | 3.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Oretta | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Breaux Bridge Baby | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Ashley Astray | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blue Ridge Legacy | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dial Em In | 1.60 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hanging Lake | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Manassas | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Eye On the Ladies | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | American Mom | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Playin N Traffic | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Dixie Lady | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Harper Madison | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Runarounddancing | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hunter’s Humor | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sweeping Edge | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Foolish Prince | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Buck Dynasty | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Indium | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Perfect Parade | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Holiday Man | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Meseta Diablo | 12.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hardly Seen Slim | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Handsome Harve | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Topless | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Majestic Edge | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lauren’s Lassie | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Wheres Mom | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Minertime | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Nancy’s Rescue | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Yougotanotion | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Flat Scat | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Sunset Seven | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Second Guess | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Reversaloffortune | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Southpine Gift | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Freeze Line | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Applewood | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Such | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Meditate | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Goodprofit | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Snowball | 1.60 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Brahms Baby | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Z Pride | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | This Is My Prayer | 4.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Crispy Creed | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tricky Creed | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | A Thousand Reasons | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ten Count Out | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Lovely Charlie | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dial Me | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shaharazad | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tensas Thought | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dr Liz | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dark Desert Wine | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Salty Martini | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Pat’s Girl | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | D’wildcat Indian | 1.60 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Katie’s Bayou | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Shanghai Woman | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Selene’s Argument | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Paleeze | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Boss Lady Melissa | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Seaside Surprise | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | My Mallory’s On | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Departed | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dr. Frankie Kaye | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Handsome Girl | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Wise Woman | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.