December 13, 2019 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Miss You Jo | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Joemo | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Papa’s Big Boy | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Classic Bowtie | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Band Boss | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ohmymy Ohmyyes | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | I Run for Three | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | No More for U | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Cicada’s Song | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Say Yes Again | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bella Cajun | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fort Polk | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mia O Maya | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kris T. | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Saved At Dawn | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tupelo Hon E | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bella Belle | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Swiss Dot | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Banshee Birdie | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Singita Dreams | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Macho Orb | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Blunt Force | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Magic City Classic S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 6 | Buggin Out | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Babalight | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 5 | Foolish Steve | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Two Mikes N Doc G | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1A | 3 | Mrmistakenidentity | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1X | 8 | Arnina | 5.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 4 | Menewa | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Gotta A. P. B. | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 9 | Excelisberg | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sister Nova | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Underestimate | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bella Falaya | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Weneedtotalk | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sunshine Deelite | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Holiday Time | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Moonlight Michelle | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Saint Kennedy | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Kenai Cool | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Altered Dream | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Hero of Gold | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Last Tap | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My My My | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 5 | Blazing Hero | 3.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Warriors Speak | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sandy’s Wager | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bulletsandbourbon | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Zurlin | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Worlds Apart | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | La Vida | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Winning Walk | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dark Mission | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Nuttin But Runnin | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Princess Simone | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | Heavenly Sis | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Job Security | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | I Will Stand | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Seek the Peak | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | El Rubio | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Coworker | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cornstarch | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Take That for Data | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Evil Eye | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Croque Monsieur (GB) | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | V Tach M. D. | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Nature’s Fortune | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Most Mischief | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Roman Creed | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | King of Candy | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Onarock | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Landofthepharaohs | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Cajun Pinata | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Square the Circle | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 10 | Outback Jack | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ruston Vow | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Jill’s Smooth Air | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Two Steppin’ Star | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dry Wood Creek | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tin Roof Rusted | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Myblendofwhisky | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | El Tristan | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Big Maurice | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Iron Grip | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Steppin’ Outonher | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Madelyn’s Wild Max | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Dixie Beat | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.