December 15, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | We Are Family | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Royal Flag | 0.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Jasminesque | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Candy Money | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hickory Made | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Grand Banks | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Factoring | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Theodosia | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ma Meatloaf | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Intersect | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Floss Dancer | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kickin Kimberly | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Whyisshesoolucky | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Macho Boy | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Money Ride | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Elite Mission | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Now and Again | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Grito de Pablito | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cray Cray | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Tipazo | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bay Burner | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4A | 4 | Later Cat | 1.40 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Digital Footprint | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mandatory Payout | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Overbold | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6A | 6 | Spectator Sport | 1.40 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Soul Fight | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Smidge | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Yankee Division | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Felix in Fabula | 1.40 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Supreme Aura | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Majid | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Krewe Chief | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Harpers First Ride | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Guns of Steel | 30.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Jennemily | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Excess Capacity | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Figure It Out | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Color Chart | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dirty Bird | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stay Smart | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Purely Lucky | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ok Honey | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Timely Tradition | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hay Field | 1.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flat Calm | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Archumybaby | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Puffery | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sweet Meadow Mist | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Mary’s Girl | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – New York Stallion Series S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Time Limit | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | A Freud of Mama | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Classy Sadie | 10.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Big Q | 1.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Holmdel Park | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Desbordes | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Officer Hutchy | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sure Stitch | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bank Sting | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Central Exit | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jimmys Lass | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4A | 3 | Apex Predator | 3.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Gongheifatchoy | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6A | 5 | Awesome Adversary | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Talespin | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Unlikely | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Lorcan | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | The Joke’s On You | 1.60 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Freudian Analyst | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 9 | Blessed Honour | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ridolfo | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Principal Dancer | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gratto Swing | 50.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Alert the Media | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.