December 20, 2019 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Stealing Sunshine | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fashion’s Touch | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Angel’s Cut | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Weightlessness | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cant Hide My Crazy | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Can’t Count That | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Baylor | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Harvey’s Song | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Sonic Boom | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Italian Charm | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Baratti | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cape Angel | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lusitano | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Killeen | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mucho Macho Bets | 6.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Wildwood Dejavu | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Allidoisdreamofyou | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flatter the Queen | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Warrior’s Kid | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Dad Said No | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bear Trappe | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fleetway | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Reigning Warrior | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Color Me Pretty | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Soaring Now | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cause to Wonder | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sundereya | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kenzie Blake | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Forgotten | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Katie the Cutie | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stumberg | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | C Islandsurprise | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Lady Blue | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Yes I’m Evil | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Whiskey Echo | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Boss of Bourbon St | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fat Clemenza | 4.50 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Undercover Lover | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | D Two | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | He’s No Bull | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pull My Chain | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Baudette Blizzard | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My Ty Fu Peg | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sydster | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Extra Mile | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | City Park | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tucker the Grouch | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Totally Addicted | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | C F Johnathan | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Diamond Crazy | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jus Socks | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Have No Fear | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Trefoil | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Rebeccas Truth | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kentucky Steal | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Da Due Run Run | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Flashyboy’s Lilsis | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Silver Squall | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Out of Trouble | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Amazima | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Silver Shaker | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Appealing Audrey | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | French Empire | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Confessing | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Palace Princess | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Romani | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Strike My Fancy | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Scootin Bayou | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fashion Island | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Darling Vera | 10.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Sooner Girl | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sweet Blindness | 20.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Runway Starlet | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Saracosa | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Swimhard Dreambig | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pray for Lisa | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Thinking of Her | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lexi Em | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Toshita Forever | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Red River Chase | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Our Sweet Daisy | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mane Priority | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ellie’s a Wildcat | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.