December 21, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Fractorzation | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Goosarella | 1.20 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ancient Brown | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Nicky Scissors | 1.20 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sharp Starr | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kilkea | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bella Invasion | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Siding Spring | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Local Hero | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tale of Mist | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Its All Relevant | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Curlin Road | 1.60 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | American Lincoln | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mills | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Power Up Paynter | 1.20 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Our Troubadour | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shandian | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Imperio D | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | False Alarm | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Beta | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Legend of Bam | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Our Papa G | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | I Love Jaxson | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Danebury | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kazmania | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Shamrock Kid | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Foolish Ghost | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Carthon | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Leap to Glory | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Oh My Papa | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Seven Is Heaven | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Our Last Buck | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kadens Courage | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Centrist | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Seed Money | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Vicar’s Legend | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Seven Plus Seven | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Talent Scout | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 15 | 13 | Waynes Footsteps | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Elios Milos | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Quest for Fire | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | I’m Elmer J Fudd | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bassman Dave | 5.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tizanoxbow | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | I Saw It All | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 11 | Bourbon N Rye | 10.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Big Wonder | 12.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Moonbounce | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 11 | Da Meister | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Cause for Applause | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Mac’s Revolution | 12.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Indian Ghost | 30.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Our American Star | 30.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Big Engine | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bustin Shout | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Red Zinger | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | True Gold | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Preferred Outcome | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Wushu Warrior | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Mystical Song | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Coolboy | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ventus | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bank On This | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Queens County S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Stan the Man | 1.80 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Roaming Union | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Major Cabbie | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bon Raison | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Han Sense | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Backsideofthemoon | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Adventist | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Keypit | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | I Am Aine | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Big Red Girl | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Rewarded | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | The New Miami | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Maqua Dawn | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hot Little Honey | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Becky’s Mission | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | More Diamonds | 5.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lil Morning Star | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gringotts | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Home by Seven | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Assault and Pepper | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Maybe a Rainbow | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.