December 28, 2019 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | My Boy Lollipop | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Move It | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jim’s Silverbullet | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Strength | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Awe Patriot | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Distored Half | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Max Pandowdy | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Sucre | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Eye Craft | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Green Lakes | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | New Year’s Party | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Girls Life | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mill Falls | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Born to D’ Wild | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Freda’s Smooth Air | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Blackberry Wine | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hieronymus | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cruel Summer | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tecumseh’s War | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Natural Power (IRE) | 1.80 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bodecream | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Oh My Aching Arch | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mailman Money | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Lady of Luxury | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bold Esther | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Weneedtotalk | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Its Cold in Dehere | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | She Beast | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Destiny’s Darling | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bev’s Humor | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Al Shamkhah | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Insane Maclean | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Pan Zareta S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Play On | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Violent Times | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Quebec | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fame Feather | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | May Lily | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | A Little Bit Me | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Change of Control | 4.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ruby Trust | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | On Probation | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Miss Bigly | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ambassador Luna | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Big Bella Brown | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Where Y’at Joe Joe | 4.50 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jake the Band Man | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bertie’s Galaxy | 5.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Charge the Line | 4.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Reckless Ransom | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Treys Midnite Moon | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Greeley Went West | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gracida | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Saltee Stark | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pickett | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Why Joey Why | 15.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Pago Hop S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Zofelle (IRE) | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Winning Envelope | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Boxwood | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | She’sonthewarpath | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Elsa | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Elle’s Town | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Oxy Lady | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dalika (GER) | 3.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Classic Fit | 8.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Summer in Saratoga | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tempers Way | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Red Rounder | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Russian Mafia | 30.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Isla Road | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Brunette Princess | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Bayern to Be Wild | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Twilight Fantasy | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Digital | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Expected | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Money Cometh | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Steadytillready | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Brother Martin | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Airstreem | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Steely Danza | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kinzea Stone | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | First Citizen | 12.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Muscadine | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Fair Catch | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Gambler | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Woodchopper S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | The Last Zip | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Marquee Prince | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Flying Scotsman | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Tracksmith | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Spectacular Gem | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Clint Maroon (GB) | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Tiz Plus | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Sir Winston | 3.50 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Irish Heatwave | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Forty Under | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Empire of War | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 16 | 12 | Vivid Verse | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rijeka (IRE) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Louder Than Bombs | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Hog Creek Hustle | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Uncapped | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Outback Jack | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | King Bandit | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Allthewaywithtaye | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | It’s Mike’s Turn | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blue Choice | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Elite Runner | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lass Song | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Sean | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tin Roof Rusted | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | T’ Cadeau | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dude Greeley | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Christopher Cat | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jill’s Smooth Air | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Miracle Master | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.