January 25, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Aife | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Room to Finish | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lexington Grace (IRE) | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fortunate Girl | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Strike My Fancy | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Brunette Princess | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Roussalka | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | N. D. Free | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Midnight Sway | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Samaronti | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Oxburger | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Derby Date | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Whata Perfect Day | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ekati’s Verve | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zachry | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ballyhack | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sacred Oath | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Love Conquers | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Stuck in Vegas | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Louisiana Moon | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Much Class | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 9 | My Prophet | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Sand Pit Road | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Pancho’s Lucky Boy | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Richie Gary | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Neon Sky | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | My First Guitar | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Kid Creole | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Star Banjo | 15.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 1A | 14 | Royal Rocket | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Joemo | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Widdle Giant | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gilded Apple | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ms Louisa | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hanging Lake | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Boston Honey | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Stars Forever | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Super Salad | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pops Shanghai | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Charsey | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Nelson J. Menard Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Hotshot Anna | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Play On | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Unbridled Class | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Change of Control | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | May Lily | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Eyeinthesky | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Classy Act | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Poster Girl (GB) | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | On Probation | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Domonette | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Quick Quick Quick | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ambassador Luna | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Moon Kitty | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Cold Smoke | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gambler | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Move It | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Schemer | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Johnny Casino | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cyril’s Boy | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Boogie Shues | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Astrologer | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 9 | Quana Dude | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Boyfriend Material | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Early Mischief | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Twelfth Labour | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Examiner | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ebben | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kowboy Karma | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Pure Valor | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Letithappencarlos | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Swinging Galaxy | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Southern Light | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Mythic’s Patriot | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dream On Mister | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Western Star | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Nocomet | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Classical Dubai | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Big Count | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Goodnight Gracie | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Catcake | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Joe G’s Payback | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Roman Jewels | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Nine Line Bind | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Running Rosado | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.