June 19, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6A | 5 | Park Ridge Benny | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Irritator | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Strong Yen | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dark Arden | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Barry Lee | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Homeview | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Most Mischief | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | All Hansens Ondeck | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Here’s Carlos | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Gold Hawk | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Laddie Boy | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kristo | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | County Court | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Star Dog | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Wild About You | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Carmelo | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Senor Friday | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Off Sixes | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | New Year’s Luck | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Cousteau | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jackie’s Warrior | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Frosted Prayer | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Petit Verdot | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pico d’Oro | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Therideofalifetime | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Private Island | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | All I Know | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Paka | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Morticia | 1.60 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Change of Control | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Midnight Fantasy | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jo Jo Air | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Gossip (IRE) | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Winning Envelope | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mt. Brave | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | On Probation | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lady T N T | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Shanghai Tariff | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Divine Queen | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Risky Mandate | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Freshman Class | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Carefree Highway | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Indawin | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Malibu Anthem | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Complete Surprise | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Light Up Night | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Cold Hearted Wench | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stripping | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | My Bets | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Candy Bizzness | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10A | 9 | Morocco | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hierarchy | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Botswana | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Voting Control | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Split the Wickets | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Markitoff | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bundibunan | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Perfect Speighty | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Easy Shot | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ya Gotta Wanna | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zumurudee | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | King Cause | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Treasure Trove | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14A | 14 | Super Dude | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | One Step | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Between the Hedges | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Heart River | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Classy Justice | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Just Fly | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | I’mthekatsmeow | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Whoville | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Carondelet | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fed Policy | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Shilah Baby | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Mama Don’t Preach | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Crown Jewel | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Four Grands | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Golden Curl | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Club Car | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Letters to Belle | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Ellens Birthday | 50.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ocean Breeze | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Balon Rose | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Devious Charm | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Summer in Saratoga | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Smooth With a Kick | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lido Key | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mission From Elle | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Confessing | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Unchained (IRE) | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Awesome One | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Julia’s Ready | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Loving Moment | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Miss Mosaic | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Crystal Lake | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Singita Dreams | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Data Damsel | 30.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.