July 9, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Fauci | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Gypsy King | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Unitedandresolute | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Habitus | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Petit Verdot | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | King Uhtred | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rustler | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Frosted Prayer | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Super Stock | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kobe B | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Incitatus | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Beer Can Man | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Little Alex | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Tijuana Brass | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Mr. Brutus | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Our Commish | 30.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Malibu Anthem | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flashing Red | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Bets | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Malibu Marlee | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Jeweled Princess | 2.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Tetrahydro | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Thomasville | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pretti Xtreme | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sally O’Brien | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Daisy Jane | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Free Cause | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Riverboat Gambler | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Holly Blame | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mo’s Mojo | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Pyron | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Atmos | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Coltonator | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Hop Kat | 4.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | The Great Dansky | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Allgrit | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Quarterback Dak | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Stealth | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tapage | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Revenio | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dreams of Yvonne | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Urbanite | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Embellisher | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bahama Channel | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Gemo Rain | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Tiz McNamara | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lookin High | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Jimmie T | 20.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | First Course | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Lady Oxbow | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Jen Take Charge | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Osaka Girl | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ivyetsu | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Kettle Valley | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Awesome One | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Loving Moment | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Morning Gold | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Teenage Kicks | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Confessing | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Singita Dreams | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Made to Measure | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Palio Flag | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4A | 3 | Movie Moxy | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bestow | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shelby’s World | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | She’s Into Me | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | April in Paris | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Speightful Charge | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Saintsation | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Norma Jean B. | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Rose of Paris | 30.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Skinny Dip | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13A | 13 | Flatoya | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Queen Medb (IRE) | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Love Beach | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Moral Reasoning | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tizahra | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Lido Key | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Ella Brilla | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Be Nimble | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Freedom Passage | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fashionable Lady | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Ellens Birthday | 50.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Passion Factor | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | A K’s Song | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Lead Guitar | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cardamon | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Dos Vinos | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Club Car | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mom’s Red Lipstick | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Figure It Out | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Summer Delivery | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Vomba | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Honey Parade | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 7A | 7 | Inthemidstofbiz | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11A | 11 | A. P. Princess | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 12 | Chocolate Bar | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pintxos | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Allege | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Militarist | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pine Knoll | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Exult | 3.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | King of Fortune | 10.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Alfons Walde (IRE) | 5.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mud Pie | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | All About Will | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Klugh | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Fortuity | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Kid Shelleen | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 11 | Obiwan | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Contractor Bill | 30.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.