July 17, 2020 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Bundibunan | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Can’thelpbelieving (IRE) | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Go Poke the Bear | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Value Engineering | 1.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Legit | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Counter Offer | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Prioritize | 0.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Brunate | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kabob | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Breed’s Hill | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fridaybeers | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dawn’s Early Light | 2.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bielefeld | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Imperio D | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Always Funny | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lorenzen | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jack Russel | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Apex Predator | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Second Fortune | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Fried Rice King | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | The Rock Says | 0.60 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Universal Payday | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | First Rate | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Blood Moon | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Super Wicked Charm | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ghost Game | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Ms. Malevolence | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Customerexperience | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pick Up the Fone | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Leaveuwithasmile | 1.60 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stunning Munnings | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Persian Queen | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Touch of Nirvana | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lake Chicot | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Too Early | 2.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Open Lengths | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Sandro the Great | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Scuttlebuzz | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Voliero | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | South Africa | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Fast Gordon | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Noble Mischief | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Justintimeforwine | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Neuro | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Vintage Hollywood | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ten Twenty Nine | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mission Wrapitup | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Coach Villa | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Big Thicket | 1.60 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Giant Shoes | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Quintarelli | 30.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kerry Boy | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – De La Rose S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Viadera (GB) | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Noor Sahara (IRE) | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Clara Peeters (GB) | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Xenobia (IRE) | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Passing Out | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Catch a Bid | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hogans Holiday | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bridlewood Cat | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Blowout (GB) | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Lady Lawyer | 1.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Olendon (FR) | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lady Worthington | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lost Ticket | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Guacamole | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Turf War | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Shine Again S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Joy Epifora (ARG) | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Positive Spirit | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Honor Way | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Indian Pride | 1.20 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Blamed | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Please Flatter Me | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bella Ciao | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Risky Mandate | 4.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Slimey | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Estilo Femenino | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 7 | Cold Hard Cash | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Operative | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Diannesimpazible | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | True Grace | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 15 | 8 | Quick Return | 8.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 4 | Golconda | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Frozen Account | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 1 | Yousaidhello | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | K. K. Ichikawa | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Supply Sider | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Shared Success | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | False Alarm | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Mr. Fidget | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | The Postmaster | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Golden Idol | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Senrima | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.