July 22, 2020 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – Jonathan Kiser Novice S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Snap Decision | 0.80 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Belisarius (IRE) | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Galway Kid (IRE) | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | City Dreamer (IRE) | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bodes Well (IRE) | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Family Tree (GB) | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Zanzi Win (FR) | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Star of the West | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Box of Chocolates | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Brazen | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bernin’ Thru Gold | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Wicksters Dream | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Passcode | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Red Zinger | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Lubash S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cross Border | 0.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Blewitt | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | The J Y | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Rapt | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Yankee Division | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Dante’s Fire | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Breithorn | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Tenderfoot | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Yankee Empire | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Lost in Rome | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Brees Bayou | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Kickin’ Kirby | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3A | 2 | Verify | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Kith | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Macho Jack | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Maxwell Esquire | 1.20 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Crack Shot | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Three Jokers | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Luna’s in Charge | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Wild William | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Go Rudy Go | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Inside Info | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Riken | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Double Shot | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9A | 9 | Ziller | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Ventus | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11A | 7 | Zelenka | 50.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Durkin’s Call | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | O Shea Can U See | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Summer Bourbon | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Just Right | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Thesis | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Playthatfunnymusic | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bronx Bomber | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Manifest Destiny | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Eye Luv Lulu | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Madison Parc | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Sainte Mere Eglise | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Gaelic Gold | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Crescent Lady | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Two Cent Tootsie | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Kept Waiting | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Noblesque | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Unicorn Sally | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Running On Entry | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Dancing Kiki | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Mia Bea Star | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tuck In | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Cainudothetwist | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Micromillion | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Wild Medagliad’oro | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Smile Bryan | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gauguin (GER) | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | La Hara (IRE) | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Colonel Liam | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Southern Bridge | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Junkanoo | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Foolish Ghost | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Sharp Starr | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Eloquent Speaker | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Singular Sensation | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Princess Pinky | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lem Me Have It | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Courageous Girl | 10.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fight On Lucy | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | First Dawn | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Central Perk | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Choose Happiness | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mani Pedi | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Adriatic Holiday | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 15A | 13 | Mebs Web | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9A | 8 | Flattering Eyes | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lottie’s Mizzion | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Happy Hill Lil | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gringotts | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Microgram | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Central Capital | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Mopolka | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Crick | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Empress Luciana | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Ashika | 30.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.