July 25, 2020 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Dusty Miller | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Willow Moon | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | I Don’t Want to Go | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kissmeonemoretime | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Winning Quality | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | True to Jeanine | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Qui | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Big Win | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Back It Up | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ruby Round Here | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sunshine Line | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Graciana | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Scaterra | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Hook Her Up | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Release the Heat | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Honey Mug | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | New Rules | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lucky Fever | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Placati | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Never Have I Ever (IRE) | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tre Lee Divine | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | My Curby | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Four Left Feet | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Monsieur Brown | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Elusive Force | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Drama Star | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Expect Elprada | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Dive Deep | 1.60 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Savage | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Charliecando | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Grand Hideaway | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ms. Dragonette | 10.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Suprise Cat | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | On K P | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Rule Follower | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Carolina Airness | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Accessible | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Burl | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Silver Quarters | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Drayke’s Channel | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lemon Kick | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | River Evangelist | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Letthebigshot Roll | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | True Loyalty | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Moonlight Mischief | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | McHenry | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fleetway | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Golden Gift | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Allegiance | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fort Ridge | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Bourbon Tan | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Cause for Pardon | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | V Man | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Standfortheanthem | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | Colombard | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lemon Blitz | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Roar of the Lion | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Crow Moon | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Independent Indy | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Syrup | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Air Wonderful | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.