September 11, 2020 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Rule Follower | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Atone | 0.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Canyons Boy | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Singasongsam | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Smart Trial | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Special Pryce | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Release the Heat | 3.50 | 1.9 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rare Action Attack | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Amazing Annie | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Present of Hero | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rend Lake Baby | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hidden Figure | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sharperthanme | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Can’t Say No | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Unscathed | 1.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Supermans Cape | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Stormin El Prado | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Suprise Cat | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | You’re in Corey | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Christmas Cookie | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Big Win | 3.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Back It Up | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Sunshine Line | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Abbmar | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Chichi Riviche | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Roar of Cali | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Causeluck | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Ride Like a Girl | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Road Game | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Just Run | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jimmy At Last | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Warriors Gem | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Magic Man’s Touch | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Creal Wonder | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Southsider | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Demand Ransom | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dusty Miller | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Helen Mae’s Song | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Superstar Diva | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lady Magna | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Probably Grace | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Thirsty Cowgirl | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | True to Jeanine | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Annie Time Girl | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | No Time to Play | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Freakin Joe | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dawn’s Road | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bold Attack | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Magi | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Heisfancy | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tsali | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Idaho Tornado | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Wellfield | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Red Prince | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Looktheotherway | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Showit | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Darlin Rosie | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Para Vivir | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Isabellacannetella | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cholla | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lil Bit Tipsey | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Little Snip | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fifthatnarraganset | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.