September 23, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Delachaise | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Touch Blue | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Silent Surprise | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tootsie | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Commish | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Union Song | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Caroline Lois | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Jack Luvs Nova | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Colonel’s Map | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sag Harbor | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | My Name Is Phred | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Winging Ways | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fast Cash | 2.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | First Citizen | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Street to Indy | 1.80 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Prompt | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hardly a Secret | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mississippi | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Candy Carlos | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Light of the World | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Knight’s Cross | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Plonder | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Passageway | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cash Me Out | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Southern Will | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Strikeitortapit | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tree Geniuses | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Authoritarian | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ruby Round Here | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Pick Up the Fone | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Stolen Beauty | 10.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Erv’s Wench | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Duplicitous | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Recoded | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Unfading Beauty | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Factor Around | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Parking Ticket | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Super Wonder Girl | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mariah’s Princess | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wild Combo | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Orsetto | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Danger | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Menzel | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ann in the Middle | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Excessive Lady | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Looking At Liberty | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | First Rate | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Street Class | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Indian Counselor | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Paynter Party | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Trashtalkinyankee | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hi Ho Cheerio | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Swordsman | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Don Vito Corleone | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Golden Dragon | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Set Piece (GB) | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Big Agenda | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Imperador (ARG) | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | My Sixth Sense | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Argentello (IRE) | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cullum Road | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | High North | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Ghostly Who | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sharp Art | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Malpais | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Coworker | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nomo Ron | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Flat Lucky | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Snaggletooth | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Stay Home | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Flight Time (BRZ) | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Homeview | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.