Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, November 22, 2020

November 22, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Winning Moment 8.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Baby White Sox 3.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 On Your Mark 6.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Cavu Command 20.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Jack Luvs Nova 3.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Lake Nimrod 1.20 3.4 6-1
3 3 Bold Adventure 20.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Subiaco 3.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 First Empress 2.50 2.9 5-1
4 4 Longleggedlaverne 3.50 3.7 7-1
1 1 Stylish Kitten 10.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Dreamin’ of Munny 15.00 5 9-1
3 3 English Escort 12.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Better Biz 3.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Financial One 2.50 1.3 2-1
4 4 Whispering Pines 4.50 1.9 4-1
7 7 Miss Tapirado 3.00 3 6-1
6 6 Powder River 4.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 April in Paris 8.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Runaway Mom 8.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Tizemotionalgold 6.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 El Sobreviviente 15.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Joe Frazier 3.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Starrininmydreams 2.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 Angkor 2.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Texas Rule 15.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Private Island 2.00 4.1 8-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Naveen 4.50 2 4-1
6 5 Star Mission 4.00 5.4 10-1
11 7 Dirty Deeds 3.50 6.3 12-1
8 6 Heaven’smymission 20.00 6.4 12-1
5 4 El Piquin 4.50 6.7 13-1
1 1 New Dice 5.00 7.1 13-1
4 3 On Temple High 15.00 7.7 14-1
2 2 Living in America 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Final Game 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Cowboy Hippie 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Spy Story 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Rob the Rich 2.50 1.4 3-1
7 7 Spin Rate 6.00 2 4-1
4 4 One Nation 3.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Takafumi (BRZ) 6.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 The Feature 3.50 4.3 8-1
2 2 The Big S 5.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Full Authority 10.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Macron 6.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 O Besos 12.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Sound Money 2.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Harrison’s Rose 20.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Supremacy 8.00 4 7-1
11 11 Ghostliner 6.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Bob’s Edge 3.50 5.6 11-1
10 10 Candy Man Rocket 10.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Oxfire 15.00 7.3 14-1
12 12 Quantum Leap 20.00 8.9 17-1
7 7 Eye of Horus 20.00 9.5 18-1
13 13 Dr. Roger 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Filippo 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 B Maker 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Manitowish 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Speitful Sam 50.00 11.3 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Admiral Lynch 3.00 1.1 2-1
4 4 Mojo Man 2.50 1.3 3-1
2 2 Wellabled 4.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Hollis 3.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Seven Nation Army 3.50 1.6 3-1
5 5 Johnny Unleashed 20.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Smokin Nitro 30.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Milana 3.50 2.1 4-1
9 9 Lucressia 6.00 2.4 4-1
3 3 Jersey Lillie 4.00 3 6-1
4 4 Double Dare You 5.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Cupp of Class 12.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Polished Gem 3.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Perks d’Oro 12.00 5 10-1
6 6 Keitany 12.00 6 11-1
5 5 Trail Town Queen 12.00 6.3 12-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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