Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, February 25, 2021

February 25, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Monarchos Prayer 4.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Love Bound 4.50 3.8 7-1
1 1 Galaxy Thirtysix 4.50 4.1 8-1
4 4 For Real Alice 3.50 5.4 10-1
8 8 Kehron’s Creed 15.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Blondie Lox Babe 8.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Cherry Twist 12.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Custom for Carlita 6.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Lucky Linz 8.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Daddymademedoit 3.00 3.2 6-1
1A 6 Slime Queen 3.50 4 7-1
3 3 Tornado Crossing 5.00 4.5 8-1
1 2 Queen of the Lane 3.50 4.5 9-1
8 9 Black Kat Taps 6.00 4.5 9-1
6 7 Artistic Jewler 6.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Beautiful Bella 8.00 5.6 11-1
7 8 Lemon Chill 8.00 6 11-1
4 4 Sneak Peek 8.00 6.1 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Schnell 6.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 War Savvy 5.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Grief 6.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Drewhustle 3.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Your Time’s Coming 4.50 3.3 6-1
4 4 Janets Jay Jay 3.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Highland Creek 8.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Nosy Banker 15.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Half Ours to Keep 4.50 1.6 3-1
9 8 Armchair Jockey 3.50 2.6 5-1
5 5 Executive Bonus 5.00 2.8 5-1
10 9 Take That for Data 5.00 3 6-1
7 6 Overzealous 4.00 4 8-1
3 3 Jo’s Bold Cat 12.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Foldover 12.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Pine Grove Road 20.00 7.1 13-1
11 10 Cadet Captain 20.00 8.6 16-1
2 2 Stock Trade 20.00 8.7 16-1
6 6 Skycraft 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Specially 3.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 She Can’t Sing 2.50 2.4 4-1
7 7 Free 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Sassy Seneca 5.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Sterling Miss 3.50 2.9 6-1
1 1 Haynesfest 12.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Vomba 12.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 One Time Gem 6.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Immortal 3.00 3.1 6-1
10 10 Awesummer 5.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Ames Mister 4.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Soul Coaxing 8.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Half Cocked 6.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Clearly Mad 8.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Aniclude 20.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 The Last Option 12.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Silent Steve 15.00 8.6 16-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Kittansett 2.50 1.5 3-1
2 2 Moliere 3.50 2.4 5-1
1 1 Harvey Wallbanger 6.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Job Security 6.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Majestic West 3.50 3.2 6-1
4 4 Canihaveitlikethat 8.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Lemon Kick 8.00 4 8-1
6 6 Conative 20.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Hohohoho 4.50 2.2 4-1
4 3 Xtrema 4.00 3.1 6-1
6 5 Killer Dress 6.00 3.6 7-1
9 8 War Falcon 6.00 3.6 7-1
7 6 Time for Glory 6.00 4.2 8-1
3 2 Breonna 8.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Princess d’Oro 5.00 4.7 9-1
5 4 Chinatown Nancy 10.00 7.9 15-1
2 2 Beautiful Star 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 5 Fire Blaster 3.50 2.2 4-1
10 8 Taken Back 5.00 2.7 5-1
5 3 Philly 6.00 3.2 6-1
11 9 Southern Swagg 8.00 4.4 8-1
2 1 Zendelphian 10.00 4.6 9-1
6 4 Caeus in Pasadena 10.00 5.2 10-1
4 2 Booth Road Shine 20.00 7.9 15-1
8 7 Alma Derby 20.00 8 15-1
7 6 General Tone 20.00 8.4 16-1
1 5 Impressive Student 3.50 SCRATCH
3 2 Free Indeed 8.00 SCRATCH
9 10 Pure Valor 4.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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