March 5, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Full Moon Fever | 0.80 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cox’s Ledge | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rumdum Byda Sea | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hold the Irish | 30.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Brother Neil | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mental Model | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bulwark | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Unbridled John | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6A | 6 | Curlin’s Knight | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4A | 4 | Lightning Rob | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | No More Miracles | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Super Wicked Charm | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | King of American | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Money in the Bank | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Promo Code | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Truebelieve | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Tapizearance | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mr Phil | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Mission Wrapitup | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Inside Info | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4A | 4 | American Rule | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Bourbon Rising | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Lorenzen | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kith | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lotsnlotsofchrome | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8A | 7 | Orphan Hallie | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Ohyoudidntknow | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Lady’s Boy | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Grecian Pharoah | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mr Ghost | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Loaded Joe | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Indian Counselor | 1.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dangerous Edge | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Unrelenting Force | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Colormepazzi | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Open Lengths | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Spitball | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | True Palace | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Dublinornothin | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Malibu Mischief | 1.20 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7A | 6 | Rude Awaking | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6A | 5 | Flat Awesome Jenny | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lovely Lady Lexi | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Mi Mi | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Whyisshesoolucky | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Persian Queen | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cover Photo | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Maiden Beauty | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stand for the Flag | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Timely Tradition | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Persisto | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stay Smart | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gracetown | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Violent Trick | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Big Tony’s Girl | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6B | 5 | Love That Face | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 11B | 10 | New York Banker | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Competion Queen | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | What Mightavebeen | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Rainbow Gal | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Captivating Cara | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Trick the Universe | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Bustin Bay | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wicked Breeze | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10A | 9 | Lovelee Honor | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.