March 7, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Qualifying Offer | 0.60 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Betty’s Smile | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Vienna Code | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mia Calia | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Steppin’ Hawk | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Misspotofgold | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Mani Pedi | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sweet Mia | 1.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Anydayisherday | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Appletini | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Happy Sophia | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Evan’s Nice Now | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Mutasallem | 1.20 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gold Bear | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dynamic One | 1.40 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Exalted Charm | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Minuteman (GER) | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tapit’s Flashback | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Ryan’s Cat | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Honorable Service | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Creative Style | 1.40 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Aristocratic | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Inscom | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Spikes Shirl | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Its All Relevant | 1.20 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Runabout | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hammerin Aamer | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Big Mountain | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Beach Access | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Queens Jules | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Creative Plan | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sneakiness | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Foolish Ghost | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Instinctive Rhythm | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Morning Breez | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | American Rule | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Trash Talker | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Biogio’s Rose S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Lucky Move | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Espresso Shot | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Wasp | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Critical Value | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Firenze Freedom | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Love and Love | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Triple Americano | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Winners Laugh | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mr. Buckley | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sinful Dancer | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Noble Conquest | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Forgotten Mission | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Micro Me | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Black Irish | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Me ‘n Sap | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.