March 12, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Calidad | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bella Principessa | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jill’s a Hot Mess | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Know It All Red | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Little Ms Scarlet | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bella Domenica | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Queentigua | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Nebo | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Madame Rose | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 4 | Madera | 1.20 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Nicky Scissors | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Trapped N My Mind | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Magicallydelicious | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Happycrest | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Stonezapper | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Jara | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Rosies Surprise | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Runaway Lute | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5A | 4 | Manifest Destiny | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sicilia Mike | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Gio d’Oro | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Kosciuszko | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mission Wrapitup | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Seven Lilies | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | The Caretaker | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tremayne | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Maria’s Gift | 1.40 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Aurannian | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Theatrical Dancer | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 7A | 7 | Emmy Winner | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Big Red Girl | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9A | 9 | Sophie Fatale | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bella Bay | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tonilee | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5A | 5 | Democratic Values | 1.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | No Lime | 1.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Grit and Glory | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dust Devil | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Parade Field | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blood Moon | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mandatory Payout | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8A | 8 | Advance Notice | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Villainous | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Air Attack | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kumar | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Deep Sea | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ekhtibaar | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Control Group | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Attentive | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | My Amanjena | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6A | 2 | My Alluring Lady | 1.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Irish Constitution | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Out First | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7B | 3 | Chasing Cara | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bustinmygroove | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3A | 3 | Breakfastatbonnies | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Pleasure Luck | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5B | 5 | Cara’s Dreamer | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | She’s an Alpha | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mizzys Image | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Vive La Liberty | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | Regal Honor | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Emma and I | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Delaware Destiny | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Full of Fire | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Idaka | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bellamy’spartygirl | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Eilish | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.