March 14, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Repo Rocks | 1.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Maine | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | American Gentleman | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jailbreaker | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | High Press | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Camouflaged Kisser | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Texas Basin | 1.80 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mr Fantasy | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Writer’s Regret | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Respect for All | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kentucky Cool | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Meetmeincali | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Wailin Josie | 1.40 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shesasuperfreak | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Saratoga Beauty | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Steal My Heart | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cheatham Hill | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sky Kitten | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Hometown | 1.80 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Risk Profile | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mandatory | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Clemenza | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Happy Medium | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Kid Cash | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lemon Drop Road | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bold Agenda | 1.60 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mystic Night | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Magic Michael | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Yankee Division | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ajaaweed | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lost in Rome | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | American Rule | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Much Trouble | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cause of Action | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mister Bobby | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tonka Flower | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Brilliant Brooks | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Step to the Bank | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Knockout Punch | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Cold Hard Cash | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Just Right | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Wudda U Think Now | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Danebury | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Microscope | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Vintage Hollywood | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Not That Brady | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Daddy Knows | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Damon Runyon S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Excellent Timing | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | A Longlongtimeago | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Perfect Munnings | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | It’s Gravy | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Reggae Music Man | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Echoes of Destiny | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | The King Cheek | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | It’s a Gamble | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Eagle Orb | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Levelplayingfield | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bastet | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lightfoot Miss | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Becca’s Wish | 4.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Odemgoldenslippers | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Despeight All Odds | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Up Seventyfour | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Roma Carpe | 50.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.