March 14, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Twilight Fantasy | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Maintainance Matt | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Homeland Messa | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Flashyboy Bobb | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Caeus in Pasadena | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Grand Omega | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Swinging Greeley | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Thirtyminutemass | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Spycraft | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Verified | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Biarritz | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Master Guns | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Da Gold Room | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hooperdrivesthboat | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Hero of the Hour | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bucky | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Muscadine | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ekaterinoslav | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Trivista | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Afleet Roger | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Humphrey | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Much About It | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sworn Silence | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Money Inthe Starrs | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | D’wild Muffin | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kenai Cool | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Over the Blues | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Becca’s Whisper | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Melody Rose | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Altered Dream | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Titan’s Treasure | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Beautiful Bella | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wave of Goodness | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Gauzy | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Cold Hearted Wench | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Somthingscandalous | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mad Tabby | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Betty Joy’s Star | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Impazible Pat | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Princesa Blanca | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Silver Take Charge | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Patriot’s War | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Easy to Miss | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Maga Country | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Just Gun It | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | O’Connor | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | White Mist | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | F J’s Gem | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mister | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | No Ka Oi | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | On the Muscle | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Suggested | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Keep a Eye On Mike | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Vehement | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Clearly Mad | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Breezy Money | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Skip the Smalltalk | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Summer Tune | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Boornazian | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Calico Joe | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Hawk Tail | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Shades of Truth | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Platinum Sky | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Half Koo Koo | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Taylor Avenue | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Thetruthisthetruth | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Halfglamorous | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lil Adeau | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Kingpin | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Oak Hill | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bad Beat Brian | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Wile E Peyote | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Star of Kodiak | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Seven Scents | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Irish Hokie | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Runchiefrun | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Perfect Perigee | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Herewecometogetyou | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | G Don’t Know | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Harper’s Deelite | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shackle the Gold | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Loveu and Proudofu | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Midnight Spirit | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Makati Phil | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Callinginthenight | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Secret Vista | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.