March 18, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Fast Verdict | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Too Much Bourbon | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Disapproval | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cryptozonic | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Richard Ronald | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Diamond Palace | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cat On the Roof | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Slam’s Man | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Combat Command | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 6 | Cap Rock Miner | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Run Tappy | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Treys Midnite Moon | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Late Nite Mischief | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Overzealous | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Zanesville | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Foldover | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Firewater Jake | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Executive Bonus | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Jo’s Bold Cat | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | No Pedigree | 1.80 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | War Savvy | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Custom Bobby’s | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Janets Jay Jay | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gallant Star | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lt. Bonura | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Got Kramer | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Established | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Brew Crew | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Schmoozin | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tap Attack | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Love Me Archie | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ghostliner | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Benbow Cat | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Citizen West | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Awesummer | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Goulding | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gianna’s Gift | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tipsy Gal | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Listen Up | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Have No Fear | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shilah Baby | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tiz Susan Ann | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Blushinstreetdevil | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Double Tough Tiger | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Mr. Biffle | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Feuilleton | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | The Last Option | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Silent Steve | 12.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Haleys Sailor | 12.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Ames Mister | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 4 | Koufax | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Soul Coaxing | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 9 | Aniclude | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 12 | Senor Fireball | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 13 | Half Cocked | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 7 | Cowboy Diplomacy | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sprawl | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Blue Jays | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sir Alfred James | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Pit Boss | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Extraordinary | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Harvey Wallbanger | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Branco Maria | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2 | Lady Anna | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 3 | Cobra Casablanca | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 1 | Dawn’s Dancer | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 4 | American Legend | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zero to Sixty | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Lea’s Princess | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Moon of Love (IRE) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Oooh Barracuda | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Savvy Ally | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mariposa d’Oro | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dancin All Alone | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Linda Got Lucky | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sharperthanme | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bet Your Bankroll | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Custom for Carlita | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Can’t Count That | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gio’s Lil Angel | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Two More Barbo | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.