March 19, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Miss Liana | 1.40 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cadeau de Paix | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Life On the Edge | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Awesome Alana | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dirty Bird | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cover Photo | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Overdressed | 0.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Take It Off | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Comedian | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rosey’s Peach | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Magnificent Mags | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Investment Grade | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Stay Home Mama | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Tiergan | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Too Early | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Moonlight Now | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wild Banker | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rift Valley | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | True Palace | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Rose E Holiday | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Malibu Anthem | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wicked Happy | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cherokee Song | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jordy Can Tap | 20.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Queen Daveigh | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Crystal Orb | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Venus Oyzo | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Truebelieve | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Joycee Haz Pizzaz | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Principal Dancer | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dr. Devera’s Way | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Larceny | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | David’s Gem | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cobble Hill | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | El Fenomeno | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | O’Trouble | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Edge of Fire | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mister Winston | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bank On Shea | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Somebody | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Popizar | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Manolito | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Judge Bern | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Blu Grotto | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Centavo | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10A | 9 | Bowing Snowman | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Noctilucent | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Civil War | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4A | 3 | Make It in Ny | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Swinging Sticks | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Doublepour | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bellamy Dolce | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Ernie Banker | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Trustyourinstinct | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | What’s My Category | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8A | 7 | Regality | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Hotel Charlie | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Papa Smooth | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Resilient Kindaguy | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tuesday’s Child | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Theitalianamerican | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Scotto | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.