March 19, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Maw Maw’s Sophia | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Say Yes Again | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tuffology | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Juanandora | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Glitter Time | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lil’ Sister Lou | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Goodnight Gracie | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Star’s Dream | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Orb’s Soul | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Smart Pegasus | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tupelo Hon E | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dori’s Birdies | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Malartach | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Meg and Clair | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Monarchos Prayer | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lucky Linz | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Stella’s Surprise | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | C’Estbon C’Estbon | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sucre | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | That’s a Song | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sassy Mallory | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | Smiling Silas | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Whiskey Plank | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Aniclude | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Mango Tree | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Tapit’s Temple | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Summer Palace | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Koufax | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Half Cocked | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Air Force Angel | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Malibu Bird | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Euphoric | 1.40 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Malloy | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Makeajoyfulnoise | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Coeur | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Knight’s Honor | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Yes It’s Ginger | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1A | 5 | Sterling Miss | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Change of Control | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Saint Moon | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Sunny Dale | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | In Good Spirits | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Dixieincandyland | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Amazima | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Rock Me | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Club Soda | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sir Truebadour | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Park Ridge Benny | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Caymans Cobra | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flash Attack | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Two Dot | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Chublicious | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Laddie Boy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 6 | Charge the Line | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Peruvian Boy | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Takafumi (BRZ) | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | About Our Time | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Land Mark Deal | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 7 | Verb | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 8 | Nice Work | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Elusive d’Oro | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Complex System | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Broth | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Its a Wrap | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Channel Won | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Merlin’s Song | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Chelsea Bridge | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Louleigh | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Wholeshackshimmies | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hey Grace | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Therunawaycamp | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Oretta | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Amoreena Star | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.