March 20, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Got the Gold | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | King Moonracer | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Purple Hearted | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jade’s Dream | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wicked Easy | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Reunion Tour | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Blugrascat’s Smile | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mills | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hammerin Aamer | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Playwright | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Frankie Barone | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hero’s Hope | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Cicada S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Save | 1.20 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Just Read It | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Salt Plage | 1.60 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Exogen | 30.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Irish Constitution | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Breakfastatbonnies | 1.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shanes Pretty Lady | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Pleasure Luck | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Vallarand | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Teetotaler | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cara’s Dreamer | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Warfront Fighter | 1.20 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Profusion | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1A | 1 | Leas Talkin Alot | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mr Gazzo | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 9A | 9 | Chambo | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Confectioner | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ballydooley (GB) | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Maclean’s Legacy | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Our Lucky Man | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Quickflash | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Leap to Glory | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Moonachie | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Financialstability | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tiz Kaz Now | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bassman Dave | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Vici | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | The Sicarii | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Sneakiness | 1.80 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Reed Kan | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Ajnadeen | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Full Salute | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Castagno | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bustin Timberlake | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | More Graytful | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Golani Brigade | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Steam Engine | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Dark Money | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Double Shot | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bronx Bomber | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Pategory One | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Possetizzly | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Irresistible Girl | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Black Panda | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Summer Brew | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Winds of Capri | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tellaperfecttale | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Esotica | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Kiss Me Dave | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Maybe I Know | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Papi’s Baby Girl | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.